TNAG-2990-FCO40-3574-Future-of-Hong-Kong-constitutional-development-talks-betwee-1992 — Page 32

CONFIDENTIAL

DESKBY

3. I am pleased to see that public support for your

constitutional proposals is holding up well - as measured by the

first opinion polls since your return from Peking. I should find

it helpful to have any further assessment which you can give at

this stage of the attitude of the key sectors of the community

and how this is likely to evolve in the face of the current

Chinese propaganda campaign. The attitude of your ExCo advisers

will of course be a crucial factor (I wonder whether your

briefing of them on 24 October offered any clues as to their likely reactions?). Support in LegCo will eventually be a determining factor, as you note. How do you see support holding up in the business community, and in particular among those with close commercial Links with the mainland? They will of course be a particular target of overt and covert Chinese pressure.

4. For the immediate future I agree that contact with the

Chinese should be established on JLG channels, as you propose in para 7 of tur, to indicate that we are ready to meet whenever the Chinese wish. This will bolster our tactical position. But as

we shall have nothing new to put forward, the probability must be that the Chinese will either stonewall on a meeting, or use one to repeat Lu Ping's points and say that it is not for them to put forward counter-proposals. The reaction of public opinion in Hong Kong to a prolonged stand-off on this basis will be a particular factor to be assessed over time.

5. I am glad that you share our reservations on suggestions in LegCo and elsewhere that a referendum should be held on your constitutional proposals. I look forward to receiving your more

detailed assessment of prospects for the LegCo debate on 4 November once the wording of the motion and the likely pattern of support is clear. But I wonder whether, given your clear position that a referendum is not on your agenda, it might not send a wrong signal if official members were to abstain rather

than