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MMA 01716
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FM PEKING
TO IMMEDIATE FCO
TELNO 1599
OF 160859Z NOVEMBER 92
INFO PRIORITY HONG KONG, UKREP JLG HONG KONG, WASHINGTON
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pa. China
asigle
053011 MDHIAN/7795
FCO TELNO 1616 TO HONG KONG: US/HONG KONG: LU PING'S COMMENTS ABOUT
THE NPC
1 WE ARE INCLINED TO BELIEVE THAT LU PING'S COMMENT THAT THE
VIEWS EXPRESSED BY INDIVIDUAL NPC MEMBERS ON REVERSING ANY UNILATERAL CHANGES TO HONG KONG'S POLITICAL SYSTEM AFTER 1997 IN THEIR RECENT DISCUSSION DID NOT REFLECT CHINESE GOVERNMENT POLICY WAS/WAS CORRECTLY REPORTED. HOWEVER WE ALSO SUSPECT THAT THERE WAS A CERTAIN AMOUNT OF PEDANTRY IN HIS COMMENT.
2. COMMENTS BY INDIVIDUAL NPC STANDING COMMITTEE MEMBERS AND DEPUTIES, NO MATTER HOW PROMINENTLY REPORTED, DO NOT REPRESENT CHINESE GOVERNMENT POLICY STATEMENTS. IT WOULD BE A DIFFERENT, AND MUCH MORE SERIOUS, MATTER IF A FORMAL STATEMENT HAD BEEN ISSUED ENSHRINING THE OPINIONS EXPRESSED IN THE DEBATE. WE BELIEVE THAT
THE NPC DISCUSSION WAS MEANT TO RAISE THE PROFILE OF THE CURRENT DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE TWO SIDES DOMESTICALLY AND ALSO TO SEND A
SIGNAL TO US THAT THE NPC FORUM FOR DISCUSSION AND INTERPRETATION OF THE BASIC LAW IS A REAL ONE, NOT JUST A PAPER TIGER. IT WAS A WARNING OF WHAT THE CHINESE SIDE COULD DO IF PUSHED TO THE LIMITS. THE DISCUSSION ALSO REPRESENTED THE LIMIT OF THE CONSTITUTIONAL
STEPS THE CHINESE CAN TAKE WITHOUT COMMITTING THEMSELVES IRREVERSIBLY (BY ISSUING A FORMAL NPC STATEMENT).
3 =
THERE MAY ALSO BE AN ELEMENT OF TRYING TO DEMONSTRATE THAT THE
NPC IS NOT JUST A RUBBER-STAMP OF THE GOVERNMENT'S POLICIES BUT THAT IT CAN INSTITUTE (RELATIVELY) INDEPENDENT DEBATE ON RELEVANT MATTERS. HOWEVER, HONG KONG IS NOT A SUBJECT WHERE WE WOULD EXPECT THE SLIGHTEST DEVIATION FROM THE GOVERNMENT LINE.
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