NSSHERN SAUTTERN PASCHIMNE
CONFIDENTIAL
50383
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PROPOSED LINE WHEN CIRCULATED IN DRAFT (SINCE IT APPEARED TO CO
AGAINST THEIR INITIAL RESPONSE TO GU MU'S STATEMENT LAST
DECEMBER THAT A DEFINITIVE DECISION WAS NEEDED IN FAVOUR OF THE
FRENCH OPTION: AND AGAINST ADVICE FROM YOU, BTC AND PEKING) THE
FACTS OUTLINED ABOVE SEEM PERSUASIVE. ON MORE DETAILED POINTS,
I THINK IT WOULD BE FAIRER TO SAY THAT THE DOI PAPER GAVE VERY
CONSIDERABLE WEIGHT TO LORD KADOORIE'S VIEW, BUT ARGUED THE CASE
FOR NOT DISMISSING THE WESTINGHOUSE OPTION.
4.
LORD CARRINGTON HAS SUPPORTED THE DOI'S ADVICE, WHILE GIVING DUE WEIGHT TO THE VARIOUS CONTRARY ARGUMENTS, NOTABLY THOSE OF LORD KADOORIE. COPIES OF HIS MINUTE ARE ON THEIR WAY TO YOU AND
SIR P CRADOCK. HIS MINUTE OFFERED COMMENTS ON THE POLITICAL
FACTORS (YOUR PARA 2) IN THE FOLLOWING TERMS:
QUOTE: SINCE POLITICAL FACTORS PLAY A CONSIDERABLE PART IN
CHINESE DECISION-MAKING YOU MIGHT WELCOME A BRIEF ASSESSMENT OF
HOW WE SEE THE CURRENT STANDING OF THE FRENCH AND AMERICANS IN
CHINESE ESTIMATION. THE QUOTE SPECIAL POSITION UNQUOTE INTO
WHICH THE FRENCH APPEARED TO HAVE MANOEUVRED THEMSELVES UNDER
PRESIDENT GISCARD HAS BEEN ERODED TO SOME EXTENT WITH THE ADVENT
OF PRESIDENT MITTERRAND (AND DIFFICULTIES DURING THE FRENCH TRADE
MINISTER'S VISIT LAST AUTUMN OVER THE SENTENCING OF THE CHINESE
FIANCEE OF A FRENCH DIPLOMAT). THE CHINESE ARE ALSO UPSET AT
THE RESUMPTION OF FRENCH AID TO VIETNAM. BUT THESE ARE LIKELY TO BE TEMPORARY SETBACKS. THE COMMITMENT TO THE FRENCH OPTION
STILL SEEMS STRONG AMONG SENIOR MINISTERS IN PEKING.
THE AMERICANS ON THE OTHER HAND ARE GOING THROUGH A VERY
DIFFICULT PATCH WITH THE CHINESE AS A RESULT OF DIFFERENCES OVER
ARMS SALES TO TAIWAN. THE TAIWAN ISSUE IS VERY EMOTIVE FOR THE
CHINESE. A DOWNGRADING OF RELATIONS STILL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THIS WOULD OBVIOUSLY AFFECT THE ACCEPTABILITY OF A US OPTION TO
THE CHINESE. NEVERTHELESS, SINCE THE TIMESCALE OF THE PROJECT
IS BOTH UNCERTAIN AND IN ANY CASE LENGTHY, IT IS TOO EARLY TO SAY
HOW FAR CURRENT SINO-US DIFFICULTIES MIGHT AFFECT THE CHINESE
DECISION. UNQUOTE
5. LORD CARRINGTON ALSO EMPHASISED THE NEED TO HANDLE LORD KADOORIE WITH SENSITIVITY AND AGREED THAT IT WOULD BE HELPFUL IF
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