TNAG-2977-FCO40-1469-Economic-policy-in-Hong-Kong-1982 — Page 92

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whole, a substantial downward revision is thus made to the

forecast growth rate

forecast of 16% to 3%.

in real terms, from the budget

24.

Combining all these revisions to the components

of the GDP, the revised forecast for the growth rate of

GDP in 1982 is now 4% in real terms, compared with the

budget forecast of 8% and the achieved growth rate of 11%

in 1981. In making such a considerable revision to my

forecast I am consoled, though only partly, by the

realisation that similar downward revisions have had to be

made by other forecasters, both in Hong Kong and

elsewhere. It

is wise to face the facts squarely. They

also reveal that most others are doing worse, though that

is little consolation to Hong Kong people.

25.

constant

The revised forecast of expenditure on the GDP at

(1973) prices in 1982 is thus $73.4 billion.

With a forecast increase in the GDP deflator of 10%, the

revised forecast of expenditure

prices is $155.9 billion.

on the GDP at current

In per capita terms 1982 GDP at

current prices is now forecast to be about $30,000,

representing an annual growth rate of 13% in money terms,

and an increase of 3% in real terms.

remarkable in the middle of the worst

world economy since the 1930s.

The latter is

recession in the

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