G.F. 326
CONFIDENTIAL #3
10
will
prices are available to the private sector. This
involve careful selection of priorities as Government
carries on steadily and consistently with its major
programmes. Have no doubt that we will so continue.
20.
Turning now to my forecast, developments in our
economy in the first half of this year and the performance
now expected from our major trading partners during the
rest of this year mean that I must make downward revisions
to my budget forecast of expenditure on the gross domestic
product in 1982. The full details of this revised GDP
forecast
to the printed
appended are
of version
this
speech.
Taking a pessimistic view quite deliberately, it
21.
appears that
for
Our export performance may remain weak
the rest of this year. Consequently domestic exports in
real terms are now forecast to decline by 2%, compared
with a budget forecast increase of 7%. Zero to negative
growth rates
domestic exports Our
major markets including the USA,
Republic of Germany. China is the only bright spot, with
are
forecast for
to
and the UK
the Federal
Similarly the substantial increase expected.
forecast
a
growth
rate of
re-exports in
real
terms
is
revised
downwards to zero
from the budget forecast of 20%.
The
forecast growth rate
I revised
of imports
in real terms is also
downwards to -3% as compared with the budget
forecast of +12%.
CONFIDENTIAL # *
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