TNAG-2977-FCO40-1469-Economic-policy-in-Hong-Kong-1982 — Page 14

CHAPTER 1: OVERALL VIEW

Introduction

1.1

This report for the third quarter of 1982 updates the

analysis in the Half-Yearly Economic Report 1982 and assesses subsequent developments using such statistics as are presently

available.

Exports and domestic demand

1.2

The performance of the Hong Kong economy so far this year has been much affected by the present world recession,

which is the most severe in fifty years. The forecast growth

rate in real terms of the gross domestic product in 1982 was

recently revised downwards from 8%, as

forecast at the

beginning of this year, to 4%. The major reason for this

downward revision is the delay in the recovery of the

economies of Hong Kong's export markets, in particular the United States. Although the growth rate of consumer demand in the United States is expected to show some improvement in the

fourth quarter, it is unlikely that this will result in а

significant revival of the Hong Kong economy this year.

1.3

In the first nine months, domestic exports in real

terms suffered a decline of 3% (paragraph 2.1) compared with

the same period a year ago. The export

sector remained rather

weak throughout the period, as indicated by the

the declines in

real terms in the retained imports of raw materials and

semi-manufactures and of capital goods (paragraph 2.7), in the volume of orders held by large manufacturers (paragraph 5.3)

and in manufacturing employment (paragraph 4.4).

1.4

Influenced by the

recession, the growth rate of

investment demand slowed down in

down in the third quarter. This was

accompanied by a decline in real terms in the retained imports

Consumer demand,

demand, however,

of capital goods

(paragraph 2.7).

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