CHAPTER 2 : THE EXTERNAL SECTOR
Domestic exports
2.1
With weak demand from Hong Kong's
from Hong Kong's main markets, the
growth rate of domestic exports in value terms remained slow
during the first half of 1982. The value of domestic exports,
at $37,827 million, was 6% higher than in the first half of
1981. Trade indexes available up to
to May suggest that there
increase of 9% in prices and a decrease of 2% in real
was an
terms.
The decline was made up of decreases of 1% in the
first quarter and 4% in the second quarter of the year.
2.2
Although a decline of domestic exports in real terms
is rare by historical experience, it still compares favourably
with the present world economic situation. Nevertheless, the 7% growth forecast for the year as a whole will clearly not
now be achieved, particularly when there is as yet no sign of
an
improvement in
in the near future. Manufacturing employment
did not increase in the first quarter; retained imports of raw
materials and semi-manufactures showed no sign of picking up; (1) and there are still no convincing indications of recovery
in the economies of Hong Kong's main export markets.
/ Growth
(1) The G.D.P. growth rates in real terms for Hong Kong's main markets in 1981, and the forecast growth rates for these countries in 1982, are given below:
Annual growth rates of GDP in real terms (%)
Actual
Forecast
1969
to 1979
1980
1981
1982
United States
3.0
-0.2
2.0
-1.5
United Kingdom
2.2
-1.9
-0.9(+)
1.0
Federal Republic
3.2
1.8
-0.3
1.0
of Germany
Japan
5.4
4.2
2.9
3.5
Canada
4.2
0
3.0
-0.5
O.E.C.D. countries
3.5
1.2
1.3(+)
0.4
Note:
(+) estimates
Source:
National Institute Economic Review for May 1982 published by the U.K. National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
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