CHAPTER 1: OVERALL VIEW
Exports and domestic demand
1.1
Although a revised forecast of the growth rate in
real terms of the gross domestic product in 1982 is not yet
available, the performance of the economy in the first half
indicates that the Budget forecast of 8%/% was too high. A
major reason is that the recovery in the economy of the United
States, Hong Kong's largest export market, is likely to come
later and the extent to be smaller than previously espected.
Similar conditions apply to other markets, especially the EEC.
1.2
Thus, with the economies of Hong Kong's main markets
not doing well, Hong Kong's domestic exports in real terms
showed a 2% decline in the first half of 1982 (paragraph
2.2). Latest economic indicators (such as those for private
consumption expenditure and for retail sales) for the US
market suggest that a recovery has possibly started. But
there has not yet been a noticeable effect in terms of an
increase in demand for Hong Kong's domestic exports. Retained
imports of raw materials, semi-manufactures and capital goods
in the first half of this year were less than in the first
half of last year (paragraph 2.11), So was the volume of
orders held by a
by a selection of large manufacturers (paragraph
5.5). When the recovery does begin to affect Hong Kong, the
export sector appears well poised to benefit from it. For
example, the prices of domestically manufactured products have
remained relatively stable in recent months as the pressure
from property prices
prices and rentals (paragraph 6.9), interest
import prices (paragraph 6.3)
the manufacturing sector has not
costs (paragraph 6.6) and
continued to ease. Further,
been shedding labour on any substantial scale (see paragraphs
1.4 and 1.5).
1
/ 1.3 The
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