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December or some time in the coming winter. If that led to an increase of immigrants because the external frontier of Schengen was porous, the effects would not be perceived by French public opinion until after the Presidential elections due in May 1995.
5.
Soulmagnon (SGCI) acknowledged that France still had fundamental reserves about the security implications of implementation; he gave Netherlands/drugs and an influx of immigrants via other Schengen countries as examples. But he did not allow that these concerns would prevent implementation of Schengen by the core five, possibly plus Spain, on 1 December or within a few months of that deadline; he implied that a short extension could be agreed at the Schengen Ministerial on 14 October. He thought that France's concerns about the Schengen information system could be ironed out by the end of this year.
COMMENT
6. I have my doubts about Bazire's contention that French public opinion sees Schengen as a means of limiting immigration. But the Prime Minister seems to have decided that he wants to implement Schengen even if the external frontier is not watertight. This raises the prospect of a laissez faire approach to Schengen implementation quite out of character with the Right's attitude to internal security and immigration. Alternatively, Balladur might have in mind some limited implementation of the agreement which would satisfy Germany and other Schengen partners, perhaps supplemented by greater domestic controls. Either way, the chances of having a Schengen agreement in force early next year have increased. But the balance could yet tip back if public opinion, stirred up by Pasqua on the immigration consequences, were to turn against Schengen.
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