CONFIDENTIAL
067705
MOHIAN 1451
IN THE EARLY MONTHS OF THE EAR ABOUT THE ROOM FOR COMPROMISE. IN FEBRUARY, A SUNDAY MORNING POST POLL SAW RESPONDENTS LOOKING PRINCIPALLY TO THE CPG FOR CONCESSIONS. BY LATE APRIL, 30TH SIDES WERE EXPECTED TO SHOW A SIMILAR WILLINGNESS TO CONTRIBUTE TOWARDS A SETTLEMENT PROVIDED IT REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH OUR OBJECTIVE OF FAIR ELECTIONS.
9. ALL IN ALL, THE COMMUNITY APPEARS TO BELIEVE THAT, WITH LONDON'S SUPPORT, HKG CAN SQUARE THE CIRCLE: TO ACHIEVE HONOURABLE ELECTION ARRANGEMENTS FOR 1994/95 DESPITE A NECESSARY MINIMUM OF COMPROMISE TO PACIFY THE CPG. THIS CONFIDENCE IS, PERHAPS, THE PRODUCT OF EXPERIENCE OVER THE LAST NINE MONTHS OF CPG THREATS IN WHICH IT HAS SEEN WHAT CAN BE ACHIEVED IF HONG KONG STANDS FIRM. FOR EXAMPLE, THE WORLD WAS SUPPOSED TO END IF THE CONSTITUTIONAL PACKAGE WERE PUBLISHED OR (SUBSEQUENTLY) GAZETTED. INSTEAD, THE CPG AGREED, HOWEVER RELUCTANTLY, TO TALK.
THE PRC: MIXED MESSAGES
10. THE COMMUNITY, MORE AND MORE, DECLINES TO PANIC OVER OTHER ASPECTS OF ITS RELATIONS WITH THE CPG. REPORTS THAT THE PLA GARRISON WOULD NUMBER 10,000 AFTER 1997 (TWICE THE PREVIOUSLY INDICATED TROOP STRENGTH) WERE SHRUGGED OFF. REFERENCES BY SENIOR CPG LAW-ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS TO THE 'PATRIOTISM'' OF TRIAD SOCIETIES GENERATED ALARM BUT ALSO SUFFICIENTLY PERSUASIVE PUBLIC PROTESTS FOR PEKING TO RETREAT FROM THE ORIGINAL STATEMENT.
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CROSS-BORDER CRIME AND THE SPATE OF WELL-PUBLICISED REPORTS OR PIRACY IN AND AROUND HONG KONG WATERS CONTINUE TO CAUSE ALARM. BUT THE PUBLIC HAS FOUND SOME COMFORT IN A FALL IN ARMED ROBBERIES (WHICH FREQUENTLY INVOLVE MAINLAND GANGSTERS) FOR THE FIRST QUARTER OF 1993 TO HALF THE LEVEL FOR THE SAME PERIOD LAST YEAR. MUCH THE SAME REASSURANCE WAS OFFERED BY CAR THEFTS (FREQUENTLY FOR DISPOSAL ON THE MAINLAND). THESE FELL IN THE FIRST THREE MONTHS OF THIS YEAR TO THE LOWEST LEVEL SINCE THE SECOND QUARTER OF 1991.
12. THE COMMUNITY HAS DISPLAYED A COOL REACTION TO OTHER DEVELOPMENTS WHICH WOULD HAVE PROVOKED HORROR HEADLINES EVEN EIGHTEEN MONTHS AGO. FOR EXAMPLE, THE CPG'S CONTINUING PROPENSITY TO SNIPE AT THE REPLACEMENT AIRPORT IS NO LONGER TAKEN VERY SERIOUSLY. THE DELAY, FIRST IN CONVENING THE LAND COMMISSION AND THEN IN AGREEING THIS YEAR'S LAND DISPOSAL PROGRAMME, WAS TAKEN IN ITS STRIDE. THE BUSINESS COMMUNITY'S DISAPPOINTMENT OVER THE
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