TNAG-2921-FCO40-4196-Visits-and-proposed-visits-by-Alastair-Goodlad--Minister-of--1993 — Page 76

CONFIDENTIAL

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MDHIAN 8168

9. Against the background of full employment, consumer spending should continue to grow steadily. Construction output is expected to pick up significantly, propelled by public sector activity on the major infrastructural projects.

10.

The restraint measures in China are focused mainly on excessive investment and speculative activities. The effect is Likely to be concentrated in Hong Kong's exports to China for its own use. Moreover, the impact is likely to be temporary in view of the Chinese Government's recent renewed emphasis on pursuing high economic growth.

11. The official forecast of consumer price inflation for 1993 as a whole has been revised further downwards to 8.5%, from the August forecast of 9%.

PATTEN

YYYY

ΜΑΙΝ

18

HKD

FED

NEWS D

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DISTRIBUTION

18

PS/MR GOODLAD

PS/PUS

MR HUM