TNAG-2921-FCO40-4196-Visits-and-proposed-visits-by-Alastair-Goodlad--Minister-of--1993 — Page 7

CONFIDENTIAL

006722 MDHIAN 83

DEFLATED FEARS.

21.

OVERALL, THE TERRITORY ENTERS 1994 WITH A MUCH BETTER BALANCED APPRAISAL OF ITS LONGER TERM PROSPECTS. WE ARE NOW IN THAT STAGE OF TRANSITION TO 1997 WHEN THE PESSIMISTS CLAIMED THE TERRITORY WOULD FALL APART, CRIME WOULD BE RAMPANT, AND EMIGRATION WOULD BE MASSIVE. IN FACT, CRIME RATES ARE NO HIGHER THAN IN THE EARLY 1980'S. POLLS SHOW THE NUMBERS CONTEMPLATING EMIGRATION TO BE STEADY AT ABOUT 12 PERCENT OF THE POPULATION. PESSIMISTS ALSO SAID HKG WOULD BECOME A LAME DUCK AND THE CIVIL SERVICE WOULD BE DEMORALISED. POLLING EVIDENCE HOWEVER SHOWS THAT THE COMMUNITY TAKES A MORE OPTIMISTIC VIEW. CHINA REMAINS DIFFICULT TO DEAL WITH BUT NO LONGER IS VIEWED AS LIFE-THREATENING. IN SHORT, THE COMMUNITY HAS GROWN TIRED OF WAITING FOR THE WORST AND HAS BEGUN ENJOYING SOMETHING BETTER.

PATTEN

YYYY

DISTRIBUTION

61

MAIN

56

- HK

POLICY

HKD

PUSD

FED

LEGAL ADVISERS//MS BARRETT

LEGAL ADVISERS//MISS BROOKS NEWS D

NTCD

PLANNERS

RAD

PS

PS/MR GOODLAD

SIR J COLES

MR HUM

ADDITIONAL

5

CAOFF //MR SIBSON

NNNN

PS NO 10.

6

PAGE CONFIDENTIAL