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Future Developments in the European Community
7
Mr Cary outlined developments leading to the completion of Maastricht. We attached importance to having a flexible Union and in due course an enlarged Community. Subsidiarity was important. We would need to define more clearly the relationship between member states and the institutions of the Community. Sir John Coles added that the European Union was now a part of British life; but there remained a real problem in presenting the concept to the man in the street. Ambassador Petrella asked which countries were the "winners/losers" from EU and which groups within each country. Mr Cary said all states could be winners. The downside was the risk of intrusion from Brussels. Domestically the losers would be the inefficient firms who were unable to compete.
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8. Mr Oakden said that we wanted an outward-looking Community. That including developing the EU's relationship with Latin America generally and Argentina specifically. the latter there were two main themes expanding the trade link and pursuing the political dialogue. Both were making good progress. The UK wanted to build on that, including through a successful GATT deal.
Former Yugoslavia
9. Mr Barnett said that after the recent talks on a "global" agreement we were now back to looking at a solution for Bosnia. There was now the prospect of 3 independent states in Bosnia-Hercegovina. Economic considerations made it unlikely that there could be a cohesive federation. Sir John Coles said there were solid political reasons for our having diplomatic relations with Macedonia, a key element in the wider Balkan problem.
Former Soviet Union
10. Mr Manning thought the elections on 12 December would take the process of democratisation an important stage further but the political situation would remain volatile. The privatisation programme would continue (thereby eroding the vested interests of the old guard): the major state enterprises would be for sale in the next phase.
HMG was in
the forefront in asserting that we should support reform by opening up of markets. Russia needed Western technical help, eg in developing its energy resources but was inhibited by sovereignty concerns.
11. The Ukraine was a particular worry. The economic situation was dire; if the energy crisis deteriorated this winter, there could be social dislocation with serious political consequences. The Ukraine had so far refused to honour the Lisbon Protocol. Relations with Russia were poor. Ambassador Petrella said Argentina had a particular interest in the Ukraine because of the large emigre community in
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Argentina and the non-proliferation issue. He referred to the problem of the Russian minorities in Ukraine and suggested this applied also in the Baltic States. Mr Manning pointed out that the Russian troops were leaving the Baltic States; but it was important that the rights of the ethnic minorities were guaranteed. Sir John Coles said we would be happy to keep in touch with the Argentine government on developments in the Ukraine. One useful message it might try to put across to the Ukrainians was the benefit of economic and political reform, drawing on the Argentine experience.
Middle East
12. Ambassador Petrella asked about the degree of unity within the PLO. Mr Ehrman said that the organisation was split on many issues. Arafat was keen to keep control of everything. We expected the elections in the OTs to go ahead next July. We were meanwhile providing substantial financial support to the Palestinians. Further support would be in jeopardy if the elections did not take place. Ambassador Petrella said that Khaddoumi was due to visit Buenos Aires shortly; how should he be handled? Sir John Coles suggested that it might be better to avoid high-profile attention as Arafat and Khaddoumi did not always see eye to eye.
13.
Ambassador Petrella asked about Syria. Mr Ehrman thought that Assad's top priorities were peace with Israel with return of the Golan and continued control in Lebanon. Ambassador Petrella said his government were under some pressure for contacts with Iran, despite having ceased civil nuclear cooperation. If a visit took place, Argentina would be willing to raise any issues, eg Rushdie, on our behalf. Sir John Coles advised great caution in dealing with Iran, a country which clearly continued to practice state terrorism.
United Nations
The
14. Mr Patey said that the Secretary of State's speech at UNGA had attempted to set out how we saw the future of the UN. The organisation would have an increasingly important role in collective security; but it should not feel obliged to be engaged everywhere. Its capacity to act would depend on the will of its members. Its structures clearly needed updating. On the question of possible enlargement, there was no need to force artificial deadlines on ourselves; the last time the UNSC had been expanded, the process had taken nine years. debate has hardly begun. Ambassador Petrella said his government were lukewarm on the question and had no firm views on a formula for enlargement. Its criteria for any enlargement were that there should be full negotiation and consensus, that there should be "sovereign equality" (ie any new members should not be lightweight), that the outcome should contribute to collective security and not endanger the efficiency of the UNSC. He also favoured the appointment of upto five regional UNHCR Commissioners, rather than one
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supremo who might be inclined to focus on the less intractable problems at the expense of other more important ones.
China/Hong Kong
15. Sir John Coles explained the history of the UK/Chinese negotiations for the 1997 transfer and the current deadlock over arrangements for elections due in 1994 and 1995. Some observers wondered why Britain was so anxious to introduce democratic reform at this late stage. The fact was that until recently there had been minimal interest in political activity in the Colony, whose population had been engrossed in economic pursuits. Tianamen Square had changed all that. People now believed that without proper democratic structures, their future was threatened. In answer to a question, he said that we were not adopting an unduly confrontational approach in negotiations; we had made many concessions to the Chinese, eg on the proposed size of the electorate, but there had been no reciprocity. We intended to put forward legislation concerning the elections soon and expected that at that time the Chinese would announce that negotiations had broken down. There was a difficult time ahead, but the prospects for Hong Kong's future were good. China also had much at stake; there was substantial investment from the Colony in Southern China.
16. Sir John Coles said it was difficult to foresee what would happen in China in the future. The regime was obscure and impenetrable. There was some risk of disintegration under economic and ethnic tensions, however there was a long history of strong centralised government. Tianamen Square had unveiled a spectre of instability which might deter a mood for change. China would remain important to Britain because of Hong Kong, human rights and non-proliferation and a range of global concerns.
17. We were not a main player in North Korea but supported US efforts to continue the dialogue. As with China, we face another closed, dictatorial society. But it was important to keep China on board in case it eventually became necessary to ask the UNSC to impose sanctions against North Korea. Sir John Coles said the collapse of the Soviet Union had led to a dramatic change in India's attitude to the West. Although unlikely to leave the NAM, India was behaving as if it were no longer a member. It was now much more open and flexible and had embarked on an important programme of economic reform.
18.
Ambassador Petrella said his government were opening a Consulate in Shanghai and were discussing an immigration treaty at China's suggestion. He added that Asia was not a significant market for Argentina although the Soviet Union had previously been a major customer for cereals. China was beginning to import some raw materials and Japan was becoming increasingly involved in Argentina's fishing sector. noticed India's more forthcoming attitude.
He had
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