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paradoxical position over this but it remains difficult to use it in a specifically Hong Kong context. It does seem to have been a major contributory factor to China's more conciliatory policy over human rights but that is a somewhat different issue from the question of constitutional reform with which we are faced at the moment. I do not think that we are going to get much mileage out of the GATT negotiations. Again a specific linkage to Hong Kong would be against our traditional position and would be unlikely in any case to remove Chinese political opposition to constitutional development. An additional complicating factor which the paper does not mention is the parallel application of Taiwan to become a member of the GATT. We have a fairly high profile position in this and that is not going to make the Chinese any more amenable to yielding to pressure regarding Hong Kong in this respect.
5. We will certainly need to consider how we should monitor developments in Hong Kong after 1997 and what sort of role the international community might play. This is perhaps better done nearer the time when the present confrontation has been resolved one way or the other and we are in a clearer position to know exactly what set up in Hong Kong we are monitoring. We have a clear locus under the Joint Declaration to ensure that China keeps to that agreement.
RF Wye
Far Eastern Section
Research & Analysis Dept OAB 2/125 210 6219/6216 26 February 1993
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