RESTRICTED
MDH?
01011
8675
EFFORT OVER MACEDONIA. THE MACEDONIANS WOULD NEED ENCOURAGEMENT AND HELP TO IMPLEMENT SANCTIONS EFFECTIVELY.
RUSSIA
3
THE SECRETARY OF STATE BRIEFED THE SWEDES ON THE PROVISIONAL OUTCOME OF THE REFERENDUM (MOSCOW TELNO 778). THE RESULTS WERE PROMISING. YELTSIN NOW HAD AN OPPORTUNITY TO MOUNT A POLITICAL OFFENSIVE TO LIMIT CONGRESS' POWERS, PARTICULARLY THEIR HOLD ON THE CENTRAL BANK. YELTSIN SHOULD GIVE THE EXCELLENT FEODOROV HIS HEAD. MRS AF UGGLAS SAID THE SIGNS WERE THAT YELTSIN WOULD USE HIS INCREASED AUTHORITY.
CIS
4. MRS AF UGGLAS SAID SHE HAD JUST VISITED FIVE SOUTHERN CIS STATES IN HER CSCE ROLE. THEY DESPERATELY NEEDED STRATEGIC ECONOMIC ADVICE AS WELL AS TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE. THE WEST WAS CONCENTRATING TOO MUCH ON RUSSIA. SHE PRAISED THE FCO CONTRIBUTION TO HER MISSION IN FULSOME TERMS. IN TURKMENISTAN, THE GOVERNMENT HAD A CONFIDENT AIR. THEY SAW THEMSELVES AS A NEW GULF STATE ECONOMY. FUEL AND WATER WERE PROVIDED FREE, ON THE BANK OF THEIR VALUABLE OIL RESOURCES. THE SITUATION IN UZBEKISTAN WAS GRIM. THERE WAS A RISK OF CHINESE INFLUENCE. ENVIRONMENTALLY THE ARAL SEA AREA WAS A DISASTER. HER VISIT TO TADJIKISTAN HAD BEEN CUT SHORT. 20,000 HAD BEEN KILLED IN FIGHTING. THE OFFICIAL LUNCH HAD BEEN SURROUNDED BY KALSHNIKOVS. FIGHTING CONTINUED AT THE AFGHAN BORDER. NAZARBAEV IN KAZAKSTAN WAS AN INTELLIGENT LEADER, ACTIVE IN FOREIGN AFFAIRS. HE HAD FOR EXAMPLE INTERVENED WITH BOTH THE ARMENIAN AND AZERI PRESIDENTS AT OZAL'S FUNERAL. BUT THE ECONOMIC SITUATION WAS BAD. RUSSIAN MONOPOLY PURCHASERS OF COAL AND OTHER RAW MATERIALS WERE DRIVING PRICES DOWNWARDS. FUNDAMENTALISM WAS A COMMON THREAT EXCEPT IN KAZAKSTAN. SHE THOUGHT LANGUAGE WOULD BE A SERIOUS POLITICAL PROBLEM, PRODUCING CLEAVAGE BETWEEN ETHNIC GROUPS. NEW IMMIGRATION STREAMS WERE STARTING. GERMANY MIGHT EXPECT 8 MILLION ETHNIC GERMANS FROM THESE REPUBLICS. GENERALLY, THERE HAD BEEN LITTLE FOOD SHORTAGE EXCEPT IN PARTS OF KIRGIZSTAN. THE SWEDES WERE NOT REPRESENTATED IN ANY CAPITALS IN THE REGION. THE SECRETARY OF STATE DESCRIBED THE CONSTRAINTS ON OUR RESOURCES.
BALTICS
5.
MRS AF UGGLAS SAID THAT SHE HAD BEEN CONCERNED AT
PRESIDENT CLINTON'S FAILURE TO REBUT YELTSIN'S STATEMENT IN
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