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rumours that Qian Qichen had been elected Vice-Premier and
would continue to deal with foreign policy. Sir John Coles
confirmed this news. He said a recent assessment from our
Embassy in Peking suggested that although Jiang Zemin now
looked to be the most powerful politician he remained
politically reliant on others.
Li Peng looked to have been
the winner in the reshuffle, and Zhu Rongji's chances of
becoming Premier had receded.
14. Mr Hum said that we generally shared Mr Solovyev's
assessment. Other potential sources of instability were the
loosening of social controls, and the movement of population
to the coastal economic zones. There were problems related
to the agricultural sector and China's low technological
base. The leadership's attempts to strengthen central
control and guard against instability included bringing more
provincial leaders into the central power structure. Before
1989 some moves had been made towards greater separation of
the State and Party apparatus. Recent leadership changes
had in contrast reinforced the concurrent holding of state
and party positions, in order to provide a stable basis for
continued economic growth and for the succession.
15. There was general agreement to these conclusions.
Views differed on how unified the current leadership was
with the Russians playing down the idea of strains at the
top. It was noted that the Chinese wanted to restructure the bureaucracy by reducing the number of Ministers and devolving the decision-making process downwards and into the
Provinces.
16. Sir John Coles asked whether the Russians saw a serious
threat of instability or of China breaking up. Mr Solovyev
said that a recent study undertaken by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences had unexpectedly indicated that Chinese
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