TNAG-2913-FCO40-4188-International-support-from-the-USA-regarding-the-future-of-H-1993 — Page 6

CONFIDENTIAL

CONFIDENTIAL

FM FCO

TO PRIORITY WASHINGTON

TELNO 425

OF 261721Z APRIL 93

INFO PRIORITY HONG KONG, PEKING

FCO TELNO 399: U S/CHINA

RE

нко

HICO 021/3

27 APF 1993

33

006544

MDLOAN 2376

2714

pa usint sup. the BJ (inst)

for White,

Oh dear.

Mese bad bi M27/4

PA MFN File

1.

Doug Paal, former National Security Council Adviser under the Bush Administration, called on Sir John Coles on 26 April. Paal said that he had set up a new private think-tank concerned with Asian affairs and that he was much involved with US Congressmen on Asian issues.

2. On MFN Paal said that he understood that towards the end of last week Winston Lord (State Department) had run into difficulty with Tony Lake and some of Clinton's political advisers on "MFN renewal. Those around Clinton were arguing against Lord's preferred policy of a balanced relationship with China and flexible conditions for MFN renewal. Instead, they were arguing for a policy of tough conditions and a clear stand against China on human rights, non-proliferation and trade grounds. Paal was concerned that Clinton would in the end go along with this group. He had already shown that his style was not to base himself on talking points submitted by the bureaucratic machine but instead to devise his own themes based on his perception of what domestic politics required. This was essentially what the President had done during the recent visit by the Japanese Prime Minister.

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3.

Paal said he was also concerned that the situation in Congress over MFN was being allowed to drift. No one senior the Administration was lobbying for a measured approach based on an executive order. The result was likely to be increased Congressional pressure for tougher action, which Clinton would not be well placed to resist.

4. We should be grateful for your comments. If there is any evidence that the MFN policy advocated by Lord is running into serious trouble, we should want to consider further

representations (and Mr Patten will need to be up to date before his forthcoming visit to Washington). But Paal may not be well informed or may be exaggerating.

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