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The people wanted less taxes etc but were not moved by the idea of counter-poise as a concept. They wanted good government.
7.
Mr Goodlad asked when LKY might visit London. LKY said that he might pay a short visit this year. Mr Goodlad said that Baroness Thatcher would visit Singapore in September. LKY said that she was "restless" and making life difficult for HMG. A decision on Maastrict had been taken. Did Britain wish to be in or out of Europe? Mr Goodlad said that HMG had negotiated the Maastrict Treaty and would ratify it. But a single currency and the Social Chapter were quite separate issues. LKY agreed: the currency convergence criteria were impossible to achieve. Now France was looking for realignment. It was too ambitious and theoretical to try to move to a single currency. If the UK did not endorse the Social Chapter then all jobs would go to Britain. He did not see why British politicians opposed this. The French referendum had been a dangerous risk.
8. LKY said it would be an unpredictable world if Russia collapsed. How long could Yeltsin last? Mr Goodlad said that this depended on Western support. The Foreign Secretary had just visited Moscow. There was a risk that the country could end up in a "black hole". LKY said that the West had given Russia $10 billion last year, but $17 billion had gone staight back to the West. They were selling off their oil and raw materials. The provinces were running themselves and negotiating with the centre. They were feeding and paying for Russian armed forces on their territory. There was no democratic way to reassert control over little local war lords. Kissinger's phrase about "systemic failure" was very relevant. Gobachev had been a nice, good man but by destroying the Communist Party he had undermined his support. What had Yeltsin got to underpin his rule? A few billion dollars merely bought a few more months. But eventually there would still be "an awful big blow-up". He would be nervous if he were German. President Clinton would be kept busy.
PS/Mr Goodlad
7 April, 1993
Copies to:
PS/Mr Goodlad
Mr Masefield
Mr Hewitt, SEAD
High Commission, Singapore
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