TNAG-2911-FCO40-4186-International-support-from-Asia-regarding-the-future-of-Hong-1993 — Page 57

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said that they had probably calculated that they would not win the election. They would therefore probably sit things out and wait for the Government to become corrupt and fall.

ASEAN

He was

5. Mr Goodlad asked about the future development of ASEAN. He had been impressed by what he had seen at the Manila Ministerial meeting last October. GCT said ASEAN had worked better as a group for the last 10 years. All the members' economies were growing, at slightly different rates. optimistic about the future of the Asian Free Trade Area, though the Philippines and Malaysia were more cautious. He foresaw no major regional problem in the next 5 to 10 years. He doubted that Vietnam and China would go to war over the Spratleys or both would see their growth suffer. A political solution would be found. It was also doubtful that the situation in Cambodia would affect ASEAN, unless refugees started to pour into Thailand.

Vietnam

6. Mr Goodlad said he was bullish about Vietnam. The

GCT country would be a candidate for ASEAN in due course. saw the objective as being to integrate Vietnam into the regional economy: it would be a problem if the country remained outside. Mr Goodlad said that Vietnam was serious about economic reform. GCT argued that the South was doing well: but there was no market knowledge in the North. Mr Goodlad said that significant technical assistance was going to the North. GCT thought that Vietnam could not progress until the US embargo was lifted. Would this happen in a year or so? Mr Goodlad said that the new US Administration was still settling down. Now that elections were over, the "Missing in Action" issue was losing its salience. US companies were queuing up ready to do business in Vietnam.

7. Mr Goodlad said that North Korea appeared to be the only other regional danger. We should keep up the pressure on them. GCT disagreed that Korea constituted much of a danger. They were further away than Cambodia. But it was important to keep up pressure or others would withdraw from the NPT.

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