TNAG-2794-FCO40-4034-Relations-between-Hong-Kong-and-Taiwan-1993 — Page 164

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FM ATTC TAIPEI

TO PRIORITY FCO

TELNO 14

OF 280944Z JANUARY 93

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RECEIVED IN REGISTRY

| FEB 1993

OFSK OFFICER

REGISTRY

INDEX

PA

Action Taken

im a pw

6

115061

MDLIAN 0303

(pam 4)

пут

NEST 24/1.

INFO PRIORITY PEKING, HONG KONG, BTC HONG KONG

INFO PRIORITY UKREP JLG HONG KONG

INFO ROUTINE TOKYO, DTI, HM TREASURY, BANK OF ENGLAND,

WASHINGTON

MY TELNO 10 (NOT TO ALL): TAIWAN INTERNAL POLITICAL SITUATION

SUMMARY

1. PREMIER HAU SEEMS SET TO STAND DOWN. LIKELY SUCCESSOR GOVERNOR OF TAIWAN. OUTCOME DEPENDS ON: A) KMT CENTRAL STANDING COMMITTEE MEETING ON 29 JANUARY AND: B) LEGISLATIVE YUAN ENDORSEMENT OF LIEN AND THE NEW CABINET. POSSIBLE DIFFICULTIES FROM KMT FACTIONS.

DETAIL

2. ALTHOUGH NOTHING IS SO FAR CONFIRMED, IT SEEMS THAT AT PRESIDENT LEE'S MEETING WITH PREMIER HAU ON 25 JANUARY (IN THE MIDDLE OF THE CHINESE NEW YEAR FESTIVITIES) HE MADE CLEAR THAT HE EXPECTED HAU TO GO AND TO MAKE WAY FOR HIS PREFERRED SUCCESSOR, LIEN CHAN, THE GOVERNOR OF TAIWAN. THE LATTER WOULD BE REPLACED BY JAMES SOONG, SECRETARY-GENERAL OF THE KMT WHOSE POST, IN TURN, WOULD BE TAKEN BY THE CURRENT TAIWAN REPRESENTATIVE IN TOKYO, HSU SHUI-TEH, WHO WAS PREVIOUSLY MAYOR OF TAIPEI. THIS SUCCESSION FORMULA WILL BE PUT TO A MEETING OF THE CENTRAL STANDING COMMITTEE OF THE KMT ON 29 JANUARY. ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT HAU IS ASKED TO GO AND LIEN IS ACCEPTABLE TO THEM AS THE NEXT PREMIER, LIEN'S NOMINATION WOULD BE SUBMITTED TO THE LEGISLATIVE YUAN WHICH MEETS ON 1 FEBRUARY. THEY WILL HAVE UNTIL 10 FEBRUARY TO DEBATE THE MATTER. THE NEW CABINET WILL THEN BE EXPECTED TO TAKE UP OFFICE AND HAVE ITS FIRST MEETING BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT MONTH.

COMMENT

3. NEITHER THE DISCUSSION ON 29 JANUARY NOR THE DEBATE IN THE LEGISLATIVE YUAN ARE RISK-FREE AS FAR AS PRESIDENT LEE IS CONCERNED. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT THE KMT WILL ASK HAU TO STAY. MOREOVER, THE VARIOUS KMT FACTIONS WILL ALL WISH TO BE WELL REPRESENTED IN THE NEW CABINET AND THE PRESIDENT'S OWN PREFERENCES ARE LIKELY TO FAVOUR THE MORE TAIWANESE-MINDED MEMBERS OF THE PRESENT ADMINISTRATION, PLUS SOME NEW FACES, WITH

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