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be expected to
come.
They will help to enlarge overall
capitalisation and increase the variety of stocks traded in
the market.
(V) Concluding remarks: implications for the
Hong Kong economy
33.
Given
the
retrenchment period in
experience
from the previous
1989-91, the Chinese government is
more discreet this time in seeking to cool down the economy
without driving it to recession.
restraint measures
Judging from the
announced and implemented so far, they
are meant to be selective and regulatory in nature, and an
across-the-board austerity drive is not contemplated. Thus
the current economic momentum will not grind to a halt. A
gradual moderation seems more likely. The stated intention
of the Chinese government is to bring down the rate of
economic growth towards, but not below, the trend rate of
8 - 9% per annum adopted in the current five-year plan.
several
restraint measures seem to have
initial success
fronts.
Renminbi exchange rate has regained much
34.
Up to now, the
achieved some
Specifically,
the
on
of its lost ground. The growth in residents' deposits with
banks has re-accelerated.
fallen back.
quietened down.
35.
Bank loans outstanding have
Speculation in the property market has
But it is also clear that the restraint measures
have yet to produce all the intended results. Inflation has remained high, probably still accelerating. The growth rates of industrial output, consumption and investment have only just been tapering off at a high level. The visible trade deficit has yet to be redressed. Inter-company debts
have re-emerged as a problem facing the state-owned
enterprises.
A longer period of observation is necessary
to enable a more thorough assessment of the effects to be
made.
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