GF 323
CONFIDENTIAL
12
機密
on
the Renminbi
pressure
exchange rate. During the
quarter, speculation was rife that the Chinese government
would allow a further decline in the Renminbi exchange
rate, to facilitate its resumption of membership in the
GATT.
15.
carry
its
The depreciation of the Renminbi is likely to implications for
external trade
Generally speaking, a
lead
tend
China's inflation, as well as for
and inward foreign investment.
depreciation of the Renminbi would
On
to higher prices of imported goods in the China market and hence add to its domestic inflation. Imports would
to be discouraged by the resultant price increase. the other hand, the Renminbi depreciation would tend to more exports, owing to lower prices of China's On inward foreign
encourage
exports in foreign currency terms.
investment,
the Renminbi depreciation would be advantageous
to those ventures for export sales but disadvantageous to those targetting primarily at the domestic market.
16.
(e) Forecasts of China's economic performance in 1993
The Chinese Academy of Social Science and other
and academic institutions recently
research
following forecasts on China's economy in 1993:
Gross national product National income
Gross industrial output
Gross agricultural output
made the
Growth rate in real terms
(*)
10
-13 10 -13
19
3.5
4.6
Growth rate in money terms
(%)
Residents' income
Consumption
Retail sales
16
15
15
W
18.6
Residents' deposits
21
Bank loans
20
Government revenue
13.3
17.9
Government expenditure
13.5
15.3
CONFIDENTIAL
機密
No comments yet.
Private notes are available after approval.