CONFIDENTIAL
7.
Yugoslavia: Serbia/
Montenegro. Internal uprising.
8.
Yugoslavia: Kosovo/
Sandjak/ Vojvodina. Increasing oppression of non-Serbs by Government or free-lance nationalists leads to fighting. Refugee problems, serious risk of spillover into wider Balkan conflict, destabilisation of
Macedonia/Albania.
9.
Yugoslavia: Macedonia. Economic/political collapse. Destabilisation by refugee influx (eg from Kosovo). Ethnic riots/outside
interference.
10. Iraq: Saddam ends Clinton honeymoon, decides to test his and coalition's
resolve on weapons
inspections, pulls rug from under Operation Provide Comfort, attacks Kurds.
Possibility (at present slight) of violent reaction to Milosevic's totalitarian intentions.
Indirect. US Administration have made it clear that Serb-provoked fighting in Kosovo would be tripwire for direct military action against Serbs; this could threaten UN consensus. Spread of conflict beyond old Yugoslavia -especially any Greek involvement would pose problems for NATO and EC.
No direct interests. Risk of spread of conflict.
Important both for the UN's credibility and for long term stability in the Middle East that Saddam should not win.
Little we can (or should?) do.
Pressure on Serbs.
Rapid resolution of problems over UN admission. EC/bilateral aid to begin asap.
Continuous activity in the UN and Washington. Keeping Turkey fully briefed (because of Operation Provide Comfort).
CONFIDENTIAL
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