TNAG-2789-FCO40-4028-Future-of-Hong-Kong-1993 — Page 64

IN CONFIDENCE

3

PRIORITIES

Note:

A.

FORMER SOVIET UNION (FSU) AND EASTERN EUROPE

Former Soviet Union.

The requirements for reporting listed below apply to all twelve republics of the former Soviet Union and the Baltic States. As a guide, reporting on Russia is of paramount importance with Ukraine as a high priority. Kazakhstan and Belarus, for at least as long as they have nuclear weapons stationed on their territory, rank as the highest priorities among the remaining republics. Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia and Moldova continue to be unstable with conflicts either in progress or liable to break out at any time. There is a need to monitor developments on a regular basis. Political and economic stability in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania is of a similar level of interest. The main reporting priorities are ethnic disputes and relations with Russia, in particular friction over the continuing presence in the Baltic States of former Soviet forces. Tajikstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Kirghizia rank as the lowest priority at present though relations with neighbouring Islamic countries are of particular interest. Moves towards greater political and especially military cooperation between Russia and any of the other republics are an important general requirement, and may well serve to increase the level of coverage required on the internal and external affairs of the relevant non-Russian republic or republics.

1.

a.

FSU CATEGORY I

Significant development in:

Internal Affairs

(1) Major statements, speeches and decisions on internal political and economic developments, issues and reforms.

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

State presidential, parliamentary and senior military appointments, and the formation of new political/ parliamentary groupings.

Major statements, speeches and decisions on defence and military issues, national security, size, organisation, control and deployment of internal security and armed forces.

The control, security and location of nuclear weapons.

Ethnic and/or political unrest particularly where use of force is involved.

IN CONFIDENCE