TNAG-2789-FCO40-4028-Future-of-Hong-Kong-1993 — Page 51

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detainees in a quiet tete-a-tete session and he had reacted reasonably;

iv) We should expect human rights pressure from public opinion to continue, but national and Community interests also included seizing commercial opportunities;

v) Chinese political development would most probably remain cautious and slow, dominated by the old guard. E Economic development would continue apace and would cause increasing political and inter-generational strain;

vi) Chinese foreign policy would concentrate over the

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coming period on a regional rather than a global role meannilthy

(the Chinese would not be capable for a long time of playing a responsible global role);

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ivesponsible.

vii) The EC should make a greater effort to compete with Japanese and especially US influence in China (the Americans had managed to pursue their economic interests despite, if anything, even greater Congressional and public pressure on human rights).

3. I did not go into detail on Hong Kong, but warned colleagues that the subject would throw up difficult issues (eg sustaining democracy and a free market) between now and 1997, on which we would be likely to call for greater support.

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JQ Greenstock