TNAG-2783-FCO40-4002-UK-business-interests-in-Hong-Kong-Chinese-discrimination-ag-1993 — Page 9

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other 20 functional constituencies.

Of these, 15 are currently

held by conservatives (members of the Liberal Party or

conservative independents) and five are held by liberals or

moderates. of the 15, only one or two can be guaranteed to

return a definitely pro-China member, as opposed to a

conservative, but a determined United Front campaign could cut a

swathe through these seats. Of the five seats currently held by

liberals or moderates, two or three may well be vulnerable to

vigorous campaigning from conservative elements. We have already seen functional constituencies change hands in this

manner: in 1991 the member for the teaching constituency

resigned to fight a directly-elected seat for the United Democrats, and was replaced with a conservative. (representing the tourism constituency) may be a particular target as the Chinese regard him as a proxy vote for Swires.

4.

Howard Young

If

This result underlines that we will face a long and bloody

battle to persuade the Chinese to sign up to any significant

expansion of the franchise for the nine new functional

constituencies required in 1995. The narrower the franchise,

the easier the Chinese will find it to influence the result.

the franchise is to be extended, we can be sure that the Chinese

will argue for more functional constituencies for trade unions, rural organisations and so on where their influence has

traditionally been the strongest.

5.

Functional constituencies will make up exactly half of the 1995 LegCo: at present only two or three functional constituencies can be expected to return moderate/liberal

members (those constituencies representing the liberal

professions: legal, medical and health care). The prize for

which the Chinese will be playing in any negotiations on the composition of the new functional constituencies will thus be

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