I. HÀNG KUN.
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THU QA NO0 95 15:57
PG.V2
CONFIDENTIAL AND PERSONAL
7.
Those on the democratic end of the spectrum, including the "moderate" or "soft" democratic parties such as Meeting Point, tend to be more robust, perhaps because they do not represent the economic and business interests in the Territory. But some of the more thoughtful representatives of these groups do not disguise their worry about the polarising effect that a breakdown would have on the community and LegCo. As the Chairman of Meeting Point, Anthony Cheung, put it to me recently, there would be no room for moderates any more: people would be forced to choose between Britain and China, or between "democracy" and a "smooth transition", and would be branded as extreme in their support for one side or the other.
Climbdown Scenarios
8.
On the other hand, how would people react in the event of a British climbdown, or a result which left the Governor's proposals so diluted as to be unrecognisable? Many people would doubtless feel relief and satisfaction, but relatively few, I suspect, would speak out in that sense. The voices of those who did would be drowned out by those of the substantial numbers of people who felt let down, even cheated, by the turn of events.
9. The potential vehemence of the reaction from the democrats was brought home to me on 2 November by Martin Lee, in a conversation which I am reporting separately. He warned that in the event of a further substantial dilution of the Governor's proposals, either in negotiation with the Chinese or by LegCo, the UDHK would call on the Governor to dissolve LegCo, call fresh elections and appoint democrats to replace the existing appointed members. On 3 November, he told Michael Sze that if the Governor were to decline to dissolve LegCo, the UDHK would resign en masse. Should this occur, the UDHK would undoubtedly mount a strong public campaign against the shortcomings of the existing functional constituency system, Legco appointments and other features of the present system. In such circumstances, a surge of public sympathy could certainly not be excluded majority have, after all, consistently supported the Governor's proposals and endorsed the objectives they were designed to achieve. It is certainly arguable that such an outcome - in which confidence in the ability of Hong Kong's institutions to uphold the rule of law was seriously eroded would leave people at least as apprehensive about their future as in any other scenario.
M
- a
CONFIDENTIAL AND PERSONAL
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