TNAG-2752-FCO40-3967-Organisation-for-Economic-Co-operation-and-Development-(OECD-1994 — Page 142

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OECD FUTURE STUDIES INFORMATION BASE

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THE EVOLUTION OF ROAD TRANSPORT IN THE PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CHINA TO THE YEAR 2000

(orig. Die Entwicklung des Strassenverkehrs in der Volksrepublik China bis zum Jahr 2000) By Bahm, Gerd, ed., Beiträge zur Strukturforschung, Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung. No. 137, 593 P. (1992)

Strategies for road transport development in China are described and road traffic up to 2000 is projected. Inefficient transport management is estimated to cost 25 billion yuan annually. Between 1987 and 2000, passenger transport is expected to increase by a factor of 2.6 from 7 to 18 billion passengers p.a.. Transport of goods will increase 2.5-fold to 17.5 billion tons. Three approaches to road transport development, are outlined: (1) economic and social requirements are met fully; (2) requirements are met to a certain extent; (3) requirements are not met. The first approach, including infrastructure improvements and expansion of vehicle fleets, would cost 387 billion yuan and is considered infeasible since the money would have to be spent within the 8th five-year plan (1991-95). The third approach would entail stagnation or deterioration of the transport system with all its negative economic effects, and is considered unacceptable. The second approach sees the road network expanding to 1.2 million kms, with modest qualitative improvements. By 2000, there would be 12 to 13 million vehicles operating on a more rationally organised road network and in better regulated transport markets. Road construction costs would amount to 291 billion yuan, of which only 167 billion yuan could be obtained from currently available sources. Additional financing would have to come from the central budget (China spends 0.7% of GDP on road construction, versus 1.3 to 2% for other developing countries) from increased levies on road passenger transport, and the introduction of levies on goods transport.

GD: Country Studies; Transport

SD: Road Transport; Transport Infrastructure; Passengers

GE: China

LO: Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Berlin, DE

(Fax: 030-82 99 12 00)

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