TNAG-2752-FCO40-3967-Organisation-for-Economic-Co-operation-and-Development-(OECD-1994 — Page 140

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OECD FUTURE STUDIES INFORMATION BASE

0390

CHINA: STRATEGIES FOR REDUCING POVERTY IN THE 1990s By The World Bank, Washington, DC, US, 155 P. (1992)

Absolute poverty in China during 1978-90 is analysed, and macroeconomic and sectoral strategies to reduce poverty in the 1990s are proposed. Poverty is defined using a subsistence basket of food and nonfood goods for urban and rural areas. Absolute poverty is almost entirely restricted to resource constrained remote upland areas. Analysis of macroeconomic and fiscal trends suggests that high overall growth rates alone will not lead to further substantial reductions in rural poverty. Assuming employment participation rates remain at 1992 levels (82%) the active working age population will increase by 76 million to 647 million over 1990-2000. Employment growth over the same period is estimated at 83 million at least. Agricultural employment is assumed to remain fixed at 333 million throughout the 1990s, but around 35 million of the new jobs could be in rural enterprises. Agricultural development schemes will probably be of limited value in reducing poverty, given that the poor are concentrated in areas less suited to the green revolution techniques that reduced poverty elsewhere in China in the 1970s and 80s. So seasonal and long-term migration will have to be encouraged if the poor are to profit from rural and urban employment opportunities. Social services for the poor should receive increased funding. The incidence of total poverty is less than 10% of the country's population, so incremental funding requirements would represent only 0.5% of current (1992) total government expenditure. Poverty alleviation agencies should be strengthened and poverty monitoring upgraded. International assistance should target inland regions.

GD: Country Studies; Economic Development

SD: Poverty; Development Strategies; Rural Areas; Urban Areas; Migration; Agriculture; Labour

Markets; Demographic Trends

GE: China

LO: OECD, Development Centre, Paris, FR

(Ref. no.: HG4517-WBC1822)

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OECD INTERNATIONAL FUTURES PROGRAMME