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MDTTAN 9832
OUT A CENTRIST DEMOCRATIC POSITION ON MFN IN ORDER TO TAKE THE LEADERSHIP ON THIS ISSUE AWAY FROM ACTIVISTS SUCH AS NANCY PELOSI (WHO HAS PUSHED FOR A HARD LINE IN THE PAST). BUSH THOUGHT PELOSI WOULD INTRODUCE LEGISLATION, BUT SHE MIGHT NOT PUSH IT IF THE ADMINISTRATION SHOWED THAT IT WAS SENSITIVE TO HER CONCERNS.
8.
BUSH SAID THAT HAMILTON RECOGNISED THAT SOME POLITICAL SHOWMANSHIP WAS REQUIRED FROM THE ADMINISTRATION. HE HAD WRITTEN TO PRESIDENT CLINTON URGING HIM TO DEMONSTRATE THAT HE WAS TAKING CONGRESSIONAL CONCERNS ABOUT CHINA SERIOUSLY.
9.
BUSH ALSO TOLD ME THAT ONE ARGUMENT WHICH HE HAD USED ON THE HILL AGAINST STRICT CONDITIONALITY WAS THAT, IF DENG DIED THERE WOULD BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNCERTAINTY IN CHINA. IN THOSE CIRCUMSTANCES IT WOULD BE VERY DIFFICULT FOR ANY CHINESE POLITICIAN TO ARGUE THAT CHINA SHOULD MAKE CONCESSIONS TO THE U.S. THE U.S. MIGHT THEREFORE BE FORCED BY ITS OWN LEGISLATION INTO WITHDRAWING MEN AT A PERIOD OF GREAT UNCERTAINTY IN CHINA.
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