F
CONFIDENTIAL
FM HONG KONG
TO DESKBY 23090OZ FCO
TELNO 1921
OF 240136Z DECEMBER 1993
CONFIDENTIAL
HUB 090/1
دنا
55
002556
MDHIAN 8168
13
OP COPY DIST?
Hay hamp
pa Floray.
Your Telno 1068: Mr Goodlad's visit to Hong Kong The Economy
1. The Hong Kong economy maintained steady growth in the third quarter. Gross domestic product grew by an estimated 5.3% in real terms in the first half of 1993 over a year earlier. The growth rate in the third quarter should have been slightly higher than 5%.
2. Locally, consumer spending remained robust, as evidenced by the significant growth in retained imports of consumer goods, by 19% in real terms in the first nine months over
a year earlier.
3.
As for investment, building and construction activity accelerated further, although investment in machinery and equipment consolidated following the large increases in the previous quarters.
4.
Externally, total exports registered a notable increase, though at a less rapid rate than earlier in the year.
5.
The economy continued to experience full employment and rising incomes. In the three months ending November, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate stood at 2.1%, and the underemployment rate at 1.5%.
6.
Consumer price inflation averaged at 8.5% in the first eleven months of 1993, significantly below the average of 12.0% in 1991 and 9.4% in 1992. Import prices remained soft, with a decline of 1% recorded in the first nine months of 1993 over a year earlier.
7. The official forecast of GDP growth for 1993 remains unchanged at 5.5%, compared with an actual growth of 5.3% in 1992.
8. While there was a slow-down most recently in the growth of exports as well as in some of the domestic demand indicators, this should have been adequately offset by a corresponding reduced growth in imports. The slow-down in export growth, if it continues, could reduce Hong Kong's overall economic growth and therefore needs close monitoring.
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