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MDLIAN
RAPID PACE AND IS ALREADY OVERHEATED. THE AUTHORITIES HAVE TO TACKLE THE KEY ISSUES CONNECTED WITH THIS FIRST, NOTABLY IMPORT LEVELS AND MONETARY AND CREDIT CONTROL. AGAINST THIS BACKGROUND CURRENCY REFORM MAY BE OF SECONDARY IMPORTANCE. THE AUTHORITIES ARE LIKELY TO SHY OFF RADICAL MEASURES (MORE COSMETIC MOVES LIKE THE ABOLITION OF FEC WOULD BE EASIER) UNTIL MACRO-ECONOMIC CONTROL IS STRONGER, THE POSITION OF EXCHANGE RESERVES CLEARER AND THE TRADE BALANCE MORE STABLE. REFORM WILL NOT BE POSTPONED INDEFINITELY, BUT IT DOES SEEM THAT THE AUTHORITIES MISSED THEIR CHANCE WHEN THE TWO RATES WERE MORE OR LESS ALIGNED LAST YEAR AND THE ECONOMY ARGUABLY MORE STABLE.
MCLAREN
YYYY
ΜΑΙΝ
53
DISTRIBUTION
69
.CHINA TRADE
FED
ECONOMIC ADVISERS
ERD
ESED
HKD
INFO D//BRIEFWRITERS
JOINT DIRECTORATE
NPDD
RAD
EASD/ODA
EASD/ODA//MR MCCLEAN
PS/MR GOODLAD
PS/PUS
SIR J COLES
MR HUM
MR MASEFIELD
MR BONE
MR MANNING
ADDITIONAL
CHINA TRADE
NNNN
16
4
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