TNAG-2739-FCO40-3953-Future-of-Hong-Kong-constitutional-development--through-tra-1993 — Page 55

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a persuasive consideration. We don't want a system that would encourage

Irowing people off the trough train.

Miss Saunders

Mr

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1995 ELECTIONS : THE THROUGH TRAIN

1. It is not inconceivable that at the 1995 elections the results might be something like; UDHK 12, CRC4, INDEPENDANT 3 and PRO-CHINA 1. It is also likely that the Chinese may declare Martin Lee and many other UDHK members ineligible to sit on Legco. If a first past the post system was used then presumably there would have to be bye-elections which the UDHK would, I suspect, win easily. However if a P.R. or S.T.V. system was in operation then presumably the next half a dozen candidates would be declared elected. These might say, be 3 CRC people and 3 Pro-China ones. This would give a final result of 6UDHK, 7 CRC and 4 Pro-China members.

2. I know that this is all rather hypothetical but it does seem to me to be an argument against a transferrable-vote type system.

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RAJ Bunten

WH 305 270 2655

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A good point, but the

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Conclusions to be drawn depend on whether one wants to make things easy for he Chinese (or "facilitate a smooth Kransition"),

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12/1

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