TNAG-2732-FCO40-3938-Future-of-Hong-Kong-constitutional-development-1993 — Page 229

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Austin Taker:

Is this on Opinionton

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007137 MDLIAN 6188

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Ms Squanderson

OF 241012Z FEBRUARY 93

INFO PRIORITY PEKING, WASHINGTON, UKREP JLG HONG KONG

FROM THE INFORMATION CO-ORDINATOR

CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM: OPINION POLL RESULTS

SUMMARY

1. THE LATEST OPINION POLL EVIDENCE SUGGESTS THAT SUPPORT FOR OUR PROPOSALS REMAINS SOLID AT MORE THAN 2 TO 1. THERE IS ALSO A HIGH LEVEL OF SUPPORT FOR THE GOVERNOR PERSONALLY AND FOR PARTICULAR ELEMENTS OF OUR PACKAGE.

DETAIL

2"

MOST NEWSPAPERS HERE HAVE TODAY CARRIED THE RESULTS OF A HONG KONG UNIVERSITY ANALYSIS OF OPINION POLLS ON OUR PROPOSALS FOR THE 1994-95 ELECTIONS. THE UNIVERSITY'S SOCIAL SCIENCE RESEARCH CENTRE HAS CONDUCTED 25 POLLS SINCE OCTOBER LAST YEAR WITH SAMPLE SIZES RANGING FROM 600 TO 2000. TODAY'S ANALYSIS IS A SUMMARY OF THE RESULTS OF THESE POLLS.

3.

THE MAIN FINDINGS WERE:

(I) IN THE MONTH FOLLOWING THE GOVERNOR'S ADDRESS TO THE LEGISLATIVE COUNCIL ON 7 OCTOBER, SUPPORT FOR THE PROPOSALS WAS ABOUT 40 PERCENT AND OPPOSITION WAS MINIMAL.

(II) AS THE PRC'S CAMPAIGN AGAINST THE PROPOSALS GATHERED MOMENTUM DURING NOVEMBER, THERE WAS A SLOW DECLINE IN SUPPORT AND AN INCREASE IN THE NUMBER OF OPPONENTS.

(III) SINCE DECEMBER THERE HAS BEEN SOMETHING OF A REBOUND IN SUPPORT. THE LATEST POLL PUTS SUPPORT AT 35 PERCENT WITH 15 PERCENT OF RESPONDENTS OPPOSING THE PROPOSALS AND 50 PERCENT REFUSING TO EXPRESS AN OPINION.

4. WHEN QUESTIONED ABOUT SPECIFIC ELEMENTS OF OUR PACKAGE, THE RESULT WAS USUALLY A HIGHER LEVEL OF SUPPORT THAN THE GENERAL RATING.

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