TNAG-2732-FCO40-3938-Future-of-Hong-Kong-constitutional-development-1993 — Page 164

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MDHIAN 5575

SUCCESSFUL, OR EVEN PARTIALLY SUCCESSFUL: EG, IF WE WERE ABLE TO IMPLEMENT SUGGESTIONS MADE BY THE CHINESE SIDE. IF HOWEVER THEY BREAK DOWN WITHOUT ACHIEVING ANYTHING CONCRETE THEN THE FACT OF CHINESE PARTICIPATION IN TALKS WOULD COUNT FOR NOTHING WITH THEM: WITHOUT AGREED RESULTS IT WOULD BE INSUFFICIENT FOR A FACE-SAVER. BUT ONE FURTHER TACTICAL ADVANTAGE OF HOLDING TALKS MIGHT LIE IN THE POSSIBLE OPPORTUNITY TO GET THE UNACCEPTABLE PARTS OF THE CHINESE POSITION (EG KEEPING CERTAIN INDIVIDUALS OUT OF LEGCO AT THE NEXT ELECTIONS) FIRMLY ON THE RECORD, SO THAT IT WOULD BE CLEARER TO PUBLIC OPINION WHAT WE ARE REALLY ARGUING ABOUT.

III) PARA 7 (II): A KEY DISADVANTAGE OF HOLDING TALKS IS THAT THE TIMETABLES DO NOT MATCH: WE WANT TO GET ON WITH THINGS, WHILE THE CHINESE HAVE NO OBJECTION TO, AND POSSIBLY AN OBJECTIVE OF, STRINGING THINGS OUT. ONCE TALKS BEGAN WE WOULD NOT BE ABLE TO AVOID A STRUGGLE ABOUT PRINCIPLES BEFORE WE COULD DRAG THE CHINESE INTO DISCUSSION OF PRACTICAL DETAILS. THEY HAVE NO TIME PRESSURE AND WOULD REFUSE TO RECOGNISE A TIME PRESSURE ON US.

IV) PARA 7 (IV): ONE DISADVANTAGE OF PASSING THE INITIATIVE TO LEGCO IS THAT THE PROCESS WOULD BE OUT OF OUR (HMG AND HKG) HANDS BUT WE WOULD BE MORE OR LESS BOUND BY THE OUTCOME: MORE RESPONSIBILITY WITH LESS POWER. MOREOVER THE CHINESE WOULD KEEP MEMBERS OF LEGCO UNDER INTENSE PRESSURE, WHICH MIGHT MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR DEBATE TO PROCEED IN AN ORDERLY WAY.

7. WHAT ARE THE CHINESE LIKELY TO DO? (PARAS 9-10)

AS SUGGESTED ABOVE GREATER EMPHASIS COULD PERHAPS BE GIVEN TO THE EFFECTS ON CIVIL SERVICE MORALE OF A CONTINUING CAMPAIGN OF CHINESE HOSTILITY. IT SEEMS CLEAR THAT THE CHINESE ARE PREPARED TO UNDERMINE THE LOYALTY OF THE CIVIL SERVICE. HOW WELL WOULD THE CIVIL SERVICE COPE WITH SUCH PRESSURE FROM THE CHINESE, AS THE CLOCK TICKS ON?

8. HOW CAN WE MITIGATE THE CHINESE REACTION (PARA 11)

I) 4TH SENTENCE: WE NEED TO BE CLEAR ABOUT THE POINT OF GAINING TIME BY HOLDING TALKS. ALLOWING THE DUST TO SETTLE AFTER NPC TUB-THUMPING, IE ALLOWING A PAUSE FOR REFLECTION, IS ONE THING. THEREAFTER GAINING TIME HAS NO INTRINSIC VALUE UNLESS WE CAN USE IT TO ADVANTAGE.

II) FIRST TIRET: THE TWO SEPARATE SCENARIOS IN THIS TIRET COULD

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