TNAG-2730-FCO40-3936-Future-of-Hong-Kong-constitutional-development-1993 — Page 63

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3.

GROWING, WITH AN INCREASING NUMBER OF THE MIDDLE GROUND LOOKING FOR A COMPROMISE, ANY COMPROMISE WOULD HOWEVER BE DENOUNCED BY THE 12 LEGCO MEMBERS OF MARTIN LEE'S UNITED DEMOCRATS, WHO ARE WATCHING CAREFULLY FOR ANY SIGN OF BACKSLIDING BY THE GOVERNOR OR HMG. SOME LEGCO MEMBERS HAVE ALREADY PUT FORWARD ALTERNATIVE PROPOSALS ON PARTS OF THE ELECTORAL PACKAGE. OTHERS ARE INTENDING TO DO SO. THESE WILL BE CONSIDERED BY LEGCO ALONGSIDE THE GOVERNOR'S PROPOSALS, WHICH WILL BE INTRODUCED IN FEBRUARY. THE PROCESS IN LEGCO COULD TAKE SEVERAL MONTHS.

INTERNATIONALLY, THE PROPOSALS HAVE STRONG SUPPORT IN THE US, CANADA AND AUSTRALIA AND (IN PRIVATE) FROM JAPAN AND SOME EC PARTNERS. IN THE UK THERE WAS SOME ADVERSE COMMENT IN THE RECENT LORDS DEBATE. HOWEVER, THERE HAS BEEN NO SERIOUS CHALLENGE TO THE GOVERNMENT'S POLICY FROM WESTMINSTER OR THE MEDIA.

4. THE CHINESE TOOK AN INCREASINGLY HARSH POSITION IN THE PERIOD BEFORE CHRISTMAS, THEY SAID THAT THE GOVERNOR MUST WITHDRAW HIS PROPOSALS AS A PRECONDITION FOR ANY DISCUSSIONS. THEY KEPT UP A VIRULENT PROPAGANDA CAMPAIGN AGAINST THE GOVERNOR PERSONALLY AND HIS PROPOSALS, AND HAVE PUT PRESSURE ON BUSINESSMEN AND LEGCO MEMBERS. THEY CAST DOUBT PUBLICLY ON THE CONTINUING VALIDITY OF CONTRACTS AND FRANCHISES SPANNING 1997, AND DENOUNCED JARDINES. WORK IN THE JOINT LIAISON GROUP CAME TO A STANDSTILL. THERE WERE SUGGESTIONS IN THE PRESS AND FROM OTHER SOURCES THAT THE STANDING COMMITTEE OF THE NATIONAL PEOPLE'S CONGRESS MEETING FROM 22 TO 28 DECEMBER) WOULD ESTABLISH A COMMITTEE WITH REPRESENTATION FROM CHINA AND HONG KONG TO MAKE UNILATERAL PREPARATIONS FOR HONG KONG'S POST-1997 INSTITUTIONS. SOME REPORTS SUGGESTED THAT THIS BODY COULD BE GIVEN A ROLE TO INTERFERE IN PRE-1997 MATTERS SUCH AS CONTRACTS AND FRANCHISES. THERE WERE ALSO SIGNS THAT CHINESE OFFICIALS HAD BEEN TOLD TO DRAW UP CONTINGENCY PLANS FOR EVEN MORE SEVERE MEASURES, INCLUDING IN EXTREMIS AN EARLY TAKEOVER.

5. HOWEVER, SINCE MID-DECEMBER, CHINESE SPOKESMEN HAVE HOWEVER MODERATED

THE TONE OF THEIR PUBLIC STATEMENTS, AND HAVE PUBLICLY RULED OUT A NUMBER OF THE MORE EXTREME MEASURES WHICH HAD EARLIER BEEN MOOTED. THE MAIN SIGNS HAVE BEEN:

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