TNAG-2730-FCO40-3936-Future-of-Hong-Kong-constitutional-development-1993 — Page 106

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027406 MDADAN 7184

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SECRET

FM PEKING

TO DESKBY 06090OZ FCO

TELNO 10

OF 06043OZ JANUARY 92

INFO DESKBY 0609OOZ HONG KONG

IMMEDIATE UKREP JLG HONG KONG

PERSONAL FOR RICKETTS, HKD FROM COX (IN AMBASSADOR'S ABSENCE ON TOUR)

HONG KONG PERSONAL FOR GOVERNOR

UKREP JLG PERSONAL FOR MR GALSWORTHY

YOUR TELNOS 4 AND 5 TO HONG KONG:

HONG KONG: DRAFT OPD (K) PAPER

1.

THE AMBASSADOR RETURNS TOMORROW AND MAY WISH TO COMMENT SEPARATELY ON HONG KONG TELNO 14. OUR IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS TO DISTINGUISH CLEARLY BETWEEN THE EVIDENCE WE SEE OF A SOMEWHAT LESS AGGRESSIVE CHINESE PUBLIC LINE AND THE CONCLUSIONS WE DRAW ABOUT ANY EVOLUTION IN THEIR UNDERLYING ATTITUDES. THE MORE MODERATE SIGNALS RECENTLY EMANATING FROM LU PING AND QIAN QICHEN MAY WELL BE PURELY TACTICAL.

2. THUS WE DO NOT AGREE WITH THE FIRST SENTENCE OF PARA 5 OF THE DRAFT IN YOUR SECOND TUR: WE HAVE SEEN NO EVIDENCE OF A MORE MODERATE APPROACH GAINING GROUND ON THE CHINESE SIDE. THERE HAVE INSTEAD BEEN:

(A)

(B) SOME COOLING OF THE PUBLIC TEMPERATURE, WITH NO NEW TURNS OF THE SCREW AND NO DEPLOYMENT OF THE SABRES RATTLED IN EARLY DECEMBER (YOUR SUB-PARAS (II) TO (IV)).

3. AS YOU SAY (PARA 6) IT IS NOT CLEAR WHAT HAS PRODUCED THIS SOMEWHAT LESS CONFRONTATIONAL LINE. WE DOUBT THAT IMPROVED CHINESE UNDERSTANDING OF THE LEGCO TIMETABLE OR CONCERNS ABOUT SINO-US RELATIONS OR ABOUT DAMAGE TO THE HONG KONG ECONOMY WILL HAVE BEEN DECISIVE. A MORE NATURAL INTERPRETATION IS THAT CHINESE OFFICIALS

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