CONFIDENTIAL
006722- MDHIAN 8377
4.
HONG KONG
THE CURRENT LEVEL OF OPTIMISM IS IN MARKED CONTRAST TO THE ANXIETY SO MUCH IN EVIDENCE, PARTICULARLY AMONG THE BUSINESS COMMUNITY, ALMOST EXACTLY A YEAR AGO. IN PART, HAS BENEFITED FROM A SHIFT IN CPG TACTICS. PEKING HAS LEARNT FROM ITS MISTAKES WHEN IT ATTEMPTED TO INTIMIDATE THE TERRITORY IN THE WINTER OF 1992. INSTEAD, THE CPG HAS GONE OUT OF ITS WAY IN RECENT WEEKS TO REASSURE THE COMMUNITY OF A CONTINUING COMMITMENT TO ITS ECONOMIC WELL-BEING IN PARTICULAR, EVEN IF POLITICAL CO-OPERATION WITH HKG BECOMES IMPOSSIBLE.
5.
THE TURNROUND IN SENTIMENT COMPARED WITH 1992 SHOWED UP CLEARLY IN A POLL CONDUCTED ON 21-23 DECEMBER. THIS FOUND THAT, OVERALL, THE EVENTS OF 1993 HAD LED MORE PEOPLE TO EXPECT THAT 1994 WOULD BE BETTER (27 PERCENT) RATHER THAN WORSE (21 PERCENT) FOR THE TERRITORY. IN THE SAME POLL IN DECEMBER 1992, RESULTS HAD BEEN 19 PERCENT AND 43 PERCENT RESPECTIVELY.
6.
THE
THE OPINION POLLS INDICATE THAT, BY NOW, THE COMMUNITY HAS DEVELOPED A CONSIDERABLE CAPACITY TO REACH ITS OWN ASSESSMENT OF HONG KONG'S POLITICAL NEEDS EVEN IN THE FACE OF STRIDENT PEKING PROPAGANDA. FOR EXAMPLE, THE WELL-REGARDED HONG KONG UNIVERSITY (HKU) POLLING TEAM FOUND ON 2 DECEMBER THAT 44 PERCENT OF RESPONDENTS HAD NOT MADE UP THEIR MINDS WHEN QUESTIONED ABOUT MY DECISION TO PROCEED WITH STAGE I CONSTITUTIONAL LEGISLATION WITHOUT PRIOR CPG APPROVAL. IT DID NOT TAKE LONG TO MAKE UP THEIR MINDS, AND IDENTICAL POLL LATER IN THE MONTH (9-14 DECEMBER) FOUND A MAJORITY (53 PERCENT) TO BE IN SUPPORT OF THE LEGISLATION (WITH 29 PERCENT AGAINST).
7.
ALTHOUGH, AS EVER, HONG KONG PREFERS ACCOMMODATION TO CONFRONTATION WITH THE CPG, THE TERRITORY HAS COME TO RECOGNISE THE LIMITS TO OUR ABILITY TO COMPROMISE AND DOES NOT BELIEVE IN PEACE AT ANY PRICE. HENCE, A PREVIOUS HKU POLL (12-18 NOVEMBER) HAD FOUND THAT 63 PERCENT OF THE RESPONDENTS SUPPORTED THE STATEMENT THAT 'NO AGREEMENT IS BETTER THAN A BAD AGREEMENT'.
THE UNRESOLVED DEBATE.
8.
DESPITE THE CONSISTENT SUPPORT WHICH THE GENERAL PUBLIC HAS DISPLAYED FOR THE ORIGINAL CONSTITUTIONAL PROPOSALS AND FOR
THE THE DECISION TO START THE LEGISLATIVE PROCESS UNILATERALLY, COMMUNITY HAS STILL TO MAKE UP ITS MIND ABOUT THE FINAL SHAPE OF OUR ARRANGEMENTS FOR THE 1995 LEGCO ELECTIONS. APART FROM THE UDHK AND INDIVIDUAL LEGCO 'DEMOCRATS', MOST POLITICAL GROUPS ARE STILL
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