TNAG-2718-FCO40-3924-Hong-Kong-electoral-provisions-and-arrangements-1993 — Page 155

SECRET

056573.

5

MDHIAN

4. THERE IS ANOTHER ARGUMENT AGAINST DECOUPLING. EVEN IF, CONTRARY TO EXPECTATION, WE MANAGED TO DECOUPLE WITH CHINESE AGREEMENT, THE INCENTIVE FOR THEM THEN TO RESOLVE THE OTHER ISSUES IN ANY REASONABLE TIME-SCALE WOULD BE SMALL. THEY WOULD ARGUE THAT THE URGENT LEGISLATION HAD BEEN DEALT WITH. THERE WOULD ALSO BE THE DOWNSIDE OF US BEING PERCEIVED TO HAVE GIVEN A LOT IN ANY AGREEMENT ON THE REMAINING ISSUES. IN AN OVERALL PACKAGE IN WHICH THE CHINESE DROPPED THEIR OPPOSITION TO THE ABOLITION OF DB AND MC SEATS, AND WHICH ALSO CONTAINED THE LOWERING OF THE VOTING AGE AND A SINGLE SEAT SINGLE VOTE SYSTEM, THE BALANCE WOULD LOOK BETTER.

5. FOR ALL THESE REASONS, I BELIEVE THAT THE DISADVANTAGES OF TRYING TO DECOUPLE OUTWEIGH THE ADVANTAGES. I HAVE CONSIDERED WHETHER, IF PRESSURE WERE TO BUILD UP IN LEGCO, WE COULD UNILATERALLY AMEND THE FORMAT OF MY PROPOSALS ON THE FUNCTIONAL CONSTITUENCIES AND THE ELECTION COMMITTEE TO FIT WHAT THE CHINESE CLAIM TO BE THE BASIC LAW PRESCRIPTIONS, AND PRESENT SUCH A PACKAGE TO LEGCO. BUT I HAVE CONCLUDED THAT WE WOULD FALL BETWEEN ALL STOOLS IF WE TRIED THIS. THE CHINESE WOULD DENOUNCE ANY PACKAGE NOT AGREED WITH THEM. IT MIGHT BE FURTHER AMENDED IN LEGCO. AND THE LIBERALS WOULD ASK WHY I HAD CAPITULATED FOR NOTHING. A THREAT OF UNILATERAL AMENDMENT AT THE END OF THE TALKS MIGHT BE A WEAPON TO BRING THE CHINESE TO A REASONABLE OVERALL PACKAGE, BUT IT IS NOT SOMETHING TO CONTEMPLATE AT PRESENT.

LEGISLATIVE TIMETABLE CONSIDERATIONS

6. SET OUT BELOW ARE A NUMBER OF LEGISLATIVE TIMETABLE CONSIDERATIONS:

7.

(A) DISTRICT BOARD ELECTIONS (SEPTEMBER 1994)

THE NUMBER OF ENLARGED DB ELECTION CONSTITUENCIES (338) IS ALREADY WRITTEN INTO THE BOUNDARY AND ELECTION COMMISSION (BEC) BILL. IF THE BEC BILL IS APPROVED INTACT BY LEGCO ON 26 MAY, NO FURTHER LEGISLATIVE PROVISION IS NECESSARY. (FOR TIDYING UP PURPOSES, WE NEED TO AMEND THE DB ORDINANCE TO ABOLISH APPOINTED DB SEATS, BUT THIS CAN BE DONE BY JULY 1994 AT THE LATEST.)

(B)

8.

MUNICIPAL COUNCIL ELECTIONS (MARCH 1995)

HERE THERE IS A SERIOUS CONSTRAINT.

UNDER THE BEC BILL, THE

PAGE

SECRET

2