TNAG-2717-FCO40-3923-House-of-Commons-Select-Committee-on-Foreign-Affairs-enquiry-1993 — Page 30

It follows from that that we should not have some great quarrel with China on our books. We should be in a position where we can face an equal competition with our European and Japanese and American competitors in China. We shall have to have a greater body of people who speak Chinese, who deal with China, and who understand the Chinese mentality. There is a very, very important matter here for us to see how the geo- political weight will shift in coming years, and to make our dispositions accordingly. That does not mean that we agree with what the Chinese say or applaud everything they do, but they are simply going to be there in a larger outline, a larger profile. We shall have to take account of that.

Mr Edward Rowlands: Do you think Chinese economic development, the kind you are envisaging, can go ahead and not really shake or change or alter fundamentally

alter fundamentally the political

structure?

The

Sir Percy Cradock: No, you are right there. economy will go ahead very bumpily, up and down, but there will be quite striking growth. Two factors will in the end impinge upon the present Communist regime in China. One is the political fall-out of the great economic growth, particularly in the south and in the non-state industries. And secondly, the relentless though quiet pressure of the outside world on China, simply, not because we are doing anything but simply we are there running different systems and that impinges upon China. Those things, in the end, will bring political change. The timing of that political change, and the manner of it, is something that is very obscure.

Chairman: That is a very good point to end on, because it is one on which the Committee would share your analysis of the development of China. We do not want to quarrel but we want to pursue the right policies.

You have put your views with great clarity and, as I earlier said, courage, Sir Percy. I would not predict that you have necessarily carried the Committee at every point, but I am sure you can expect to get total endorsement for your

Sir Percy Cradock: I would be very surprised,

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