TNAG-2714-FCO40-3920-House-of-Commons-Select-Committee-on-Foreign-Affairs-enquiry-1993 — Page 39

14-JUL-1993 16:30

TRANSCRIPT B

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0494536249 P.07

JAMES LEE

MR. ALASTAIR GOODLAD - FOREIGN AFFAIRS SELECT

14 JULY 1993

COMMITTEE

6

MR. ALASTAIR GOODLAD:

I think it is always difficult to foretell the future. The leadership in China by international standards is obviously quite old and therefore in years to come inevitably will change. China's economic development, I think, is likely to continue but there are difficulties and there will be difficulties.

Quite how

their political system will develop in the face of the rapid economic liberalisation and development I wouldn't with any great confidence predict nor, I think, should anybody else. I would think that people will hope for evolutionary change but British business seems to be taking a pretty optimistic view since our. exports there have gone up 78% I think in the first four months of this year over last year. Whether or not they get the Olympic Games I think will depend less on the view that the International Olympic Committee take of the certanties of the matter than of the

likelihood of the matter but there are no certainties about what

Manchester will look like in the year 2000 other than it will be Conservative-controlled (laughter)

CHAI RMAN:

!

You talk about China's economic difficulties and of course it does

appear that they are heading into an extremely difficult phase with violent overheating of the Chinese economy and the

appointment of Mr. Zhu (phon) to try and slow it all down very

rapidly. Are we about to see the Chinese economic miracle of

recent years come to a juddering halt and what effect might all that have on the question of relations with Hong Kong?