SECRET
101602 MDHIAN 315
extra costs. Estimates of the number of HMOCS officers likely to Leave in 1996-97 vary from grade to grade and department to department. We think that somewhere between 30% and 60% of the approximately 420 HMOCS officers still in service in 1996-97 would seek to retire at that time but much would depend upon the general situation in Hong Kong and relations between Britain and China. do not intend to venture this information to the Chinese, but could respond accordingly if asked.
6.
We have reservations about making any suggestion that the Chinese might allow the early retirement provisions to extend beyond 30 June 1997, as flagged up in paragraph 6 of first TUR. There are serious local implications. It would also mean Chinese involvement in what we have always presented as HMG meeting its own obligations to HMOCs. We believe this should only be considered in the light of strong expressions of Chinese concern about a possible exodus of HMOCS officers in 1997.
7.
Subject to your clearance, we propose that Paul should brief LIU at his regular weekly meeting on Thursday 25 November and hand over a copy of the Speaking Note.
8.
Please see MIFT.
OTHER ISSUES
9. We shall consider and respond separately on the tax related issue.
PATTEN
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MAIN
38
.HER MAJESTY'S OVERSEAS
DISTRIBUTION
38
OVERSEA PENSIONS/ODA//MR FISH
PS
.CIVIL SERVICE RESTRICTED
HKD
LEGAL ADVISERS//MISS BROOKS FED
NEWS D
RAD || MR WYE
RMU.
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PS/MR GOODLAD
PS/PUS
SIR J COLES
MR FREEMAN
MR HUM.
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MR MUIR
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MR KERBY.
THIS IS A COPY
THE ORIGINAL HAS BEEN
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FOI EXEMPTION NO....??(1), 40(2)
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