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LATEST NEWS SUGGESTS THAT HERMES AND KFW WILL MATCH ECGD/ODA IN AID SUPPORT FOR THE ROLLING STOCK. BUT IF NO GERMAN AID MATERIALISES, EVEN THE MOST BARE-FACED PEKING CADRE WOULD FIND IT HARD TO EXPLAIN WHY UK FIRMS, SUPPORTED BY GENEROUS ATP, HAD LOST THE CONTRACT. MUCH THEREFORE RIDES ON THE FINAL GERMAN AID DECISION. IF EC SOLIDARITY WERE A REALITY AND COMMERCIAL CONSIDERATIONS COULD BE OVERRULED (UTOPIA), KOHL WOULD BE PERSUADED THAT FOR THE GREATER WESTERN GOOD, CHINA SHOULD NOT/NOT BE ENCOURAGED TO USE THE POLITCAL CARD AGAINST ONE EC MEMBER FOR THE BENEFIT OF ANOTHER, PARTICULARLY WHEN THE ONE BEING PUNISHED IS WORKING FOR A CAUSE IN HONG KONG WHICH SHOULD BE OF GENERAL EC INTEREST. BUT WHO WILL PUT THAT CASE TO HIM, PARTICULARLY GIVEN GERMANY'S OWN PERESENT HEART- SEARCHING OVER ITS CHINA/TAIWAN POLICY QUERY.
DELAYS IN MAJOR PROJECTS.
8.
MEANWHILE IN HONG KONG ITSELF THE CHINESE HAVE DEMONSTRATED THEIR MUSCLE BY DELAYING PROGRESS ON MAJOR PROJECTS, NOTABLY THE AIRPORT AND CONTAINER TERMINAL 9. THESE DELAYS FRUSTRATE THE BUSINESS COMMUNITY BUT HAVE SO FAR MADE ONLY A MARIGNAL REAL DIFFERENCE TO THE PROJECTED COMPLETION DATES. THAT WILL SOON CHANGE. UNLESS AGREEMENT CAN BE REACHED VERY SHORTLY ON CT9, CONSTRUCTION WILL BE DELAYED WITH INEVITABLE COSTS TO THE ECONOMY. AND ON THE AIRPORT CORE PROJECTS, THE CHINESE HAVE SO FAR JUDGED MATTERS VERY FINELY, AGREEING VARIOUS ELEMENTS (MOST RECENTLY THE CENTRAL/WANCHAI RECLAMATION AND THE WESTERN HARBOUR CROSSING) IN THE NICK OF TIME TO ALLOW COMPLETION OF ALL OR MOST OF THE WORKS ON TIME. BUT UNLESS THE OVERALL FINANCING PACKAGE CAN BE AGREED BY THIS AUTUMN, VARIOUS IMPORTANT TENDERS WILL NEED TO BE DELAYED, INEVITABLY AFFECTING THE AIRPORT'S PROJECTED OPENING IN JUNE 1997. THE BUSINESS COMMUNITY WILL WATCH CHINESE DECISONS ON THESE MAJOR PROJECTS AS A BELLWEATHER OF THEIR INTENTION ON HONG KONG'S FUTURE PROSPERITY.
ENDS PART ONE OF TWO PARTS.
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