TNAG-2678-FCO40-3875-Hong-Kong-contingency-planning-1993 — Page 3

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18 JAN 1993

P.a.

DESK OFFICER

INDEX

PA

Action Takı

(HONG KONG: CONTINGENCY PLANNING)

1.

These papers

The Minister thought it would be useful to look at contingency planning early in the New Year. provide a useful summary.

2.

On the military side Mr Goodlad will recall the JIC report before Christmas which assessed the threat of Chinese military action against Hong Kong as "low" (previously assessed as "remote"). Annex A makes clear that the role of the garrison does not include the defence of Hong Kong in the event of Chinese military invasion. If the threat of Chinese action became higher than at present we and the MOD would need to consider how we and the garrison would respond to such a threat. The need does not arise now and hopefully never will.

3.

Otherwise the contingency plans for dealing with a deterioration in internal security or a need for a controlled evacuation seem adequate for present circumstances - though we should need to re-examine them if a threat of either developed.

4.

On the civil side Mr Ricketts identifies the possible pressure points. The action in hand seems sensible.

CC:

Mr Hum

Mr Ricketts, HKD Mr Davies, FED

John Cole.

Sir John Coles

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