DECRET
contribution. Yet the savings accruing from the Chancellor's proposal would have the consequence of increasing the liability of the Hong Kong Government under the Defence Costs Agreement.
3. I do not believe that I can sensibly take a judgement about this outside the outcome for the Defence Budget of PES 93 and the resulting programme adjustments which may be necessary in the Department's current Long Term Costing round; nor in advance of the outcome of the current round of Defence Costs talks with the Hong Kong Government, which it is hoped to complete in November. I therefore propose to return to the issue in this context early next year (unless awkward developments in the talks with the Hong Kong Government require me to do this earlier) and will advise you and OPD (K) colleagues of my conclusions. It is unlikely that we could effect the rundown of the Brigade of Gurkhas by a further battalion less than 18 months (two Gurkha battalions will in any case merge in June 1994, and the strength of the Brigade reduce by some 1700 during 1994/95). So if we were to decide to adopt the Chancellor's proposal then, it would probably not be possible to return a UK battalion to Hong Kong until September, rather than April, 1995.
4.
I am copying this minute to other members of OPD (K) and to Sir
Robin Butler.
Ministry of Defence 12 October 1993
SECRET
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