SECRET
XCX(93)29
(b)
(c)
(d)
match. In late 1996/early 1997 this battalion should be replaced by a UK battalion until 30 June 1997 (in practice, two battalions would be posted in succession for short unaccompanied tours);
the three RN patrol craft should remain until 1997;
the future of the eight RAF helicopters should be subject to further review (the 1992 review of helicopters recommended withdrawal of three Army Air Corps helicopters; the remaining five of these helicopters are also subject to further review);
an RN Task Force should be deployed to Hong Kong in 1997 for the final departure.
This would mean the Garrison's strength reducing to about 3,000 to 3,500 by early 1995 and remaining at about that level until the final few months before June 1997. A credible and effective reinforcement capability would be retained throughout the period.
16
Our view is that these proposals are well suited to Hong Kong's needs and are consistent with maintaining security and stability in the run up to 1997. They also have the following advantages from Hong Kong's point of view -
(a) they demonstrate the confidence of HMG and HKG in the ability of local forces to maintain public order unaided; and
(b)
they would, overall, cost substantially less than "stronger for longer", although the costs associated with withdrawing units would occur earlier, so savings would not start to become apparent for two years or so. Initial calculations indicate that between now and 1997, our contribution to the cost of the Garrison would be about $1 billion less than under the 1991 plan. This is important because of sensitivity in the Legislative Council over the extent of Hong Kong's financial contribution to the Garrison, especially now that the RHKPF's role has been expanded. The revised
Executive Council
No comments yet.
Private notes are available after approval.