TNAG-2676-FCO40-3873-Hong-Kong-garrison-withdrawal-plan-1993 — Page 4

SECRET

FM UKREP JLG HONG KONG

TO IMMEDIATE FCO

TELNO 134

OF 150505Z JUNE 93

SECRET

HKA 063/1

101

157107

DISTRY

MDHIAN 4854

1993 TOP COPY

SK

PA

REGISTRY Action Taken

Q DIST?

INFO ROUTINE HONG KONG, PEKING

99

میر

TELECON RICKETTS/GALSWORTHY AND YOUR TELNO 580: WITHDRAWAL OF THE GARRISON

1. WE WILL BE DISCUSSING THE TIMING OF INFORMING THE CHINESE AT TOMORROW'S MEETING WITH HKG, BUT I PROMISED TO LET YOU HAVE MY OWN VIEW ON THIS.

2. THE DANGER IS THAT IF WE APPEAR TO BE BOUNCING THE CHINESE THEY WILL REACT TO THE BOUNCE RATHER THAN THE SUBSTANCE. ON THE EXPERIENCE OF OUR LAST DEALING ON THIS SUBJECT, WE MIGHT, OTHER THINGS BEING EQUAL, GET NO REACTION AT ALL WHEN WE BRIEF THEM OR SUBSEQUENTLY, ALTHOUGH THIS TIME, GIVEN THE MORE IMPORTANT SUBSTANCE OF THE COMMUNICATION, THIS IS PERHAPS LESS LIKELY. HOWEVER, IF THEY THINK WE ARE GIVING THEM TOO SHORT A DEADLINE, THEY WILL INSTINCTIVELY PRESS FOR THE DEADLINE TO BE PUT BACK TO ENABLE DISCUSSIONS TO TAKE PLACE. IF WE REFUSE TO DO THIS, THEY WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY ATTACK THE DECISION WHEN IT IS ANNOUNCED AND, IN PARTICULAR, ATTACK OUR FAILURE TO CONSULT THEM PROPERLY ABOUT IT.

3

DECISIONS ON GARRISON SIZE ARE FOR US TO TAKE, AND WE CLEARLY SHOULD NOT ALLOW THE CHINESE TO DICTATE THEM. NEVERTHELESS, THE CHINESE DO HAVE AN OBVIOUS AND LEGITIMATE INTEREST IN SECURITY IN HONG KONG BETWEEN NOW AND 1997. IF THEY ARE ABLE TO REPRESENT US SUCCESSFULLY AS NOT GIVING THEM AN OPPORTUNITY TO MAKE THEIR INPUT, I SUSPECT THAT PUBLIC OPINION HERE AND OUTSIDE OBSERVERS WILL TEND TO SUPPORT THEIR VIEW. IN PARTICULAR, IF WE CREATE ANOTHER BONE OF CONTENTION AT THIS JUNCTURE WITHOUT ANY PUBLICLY RESPECTABLE REASON, WE SHALL NOT BE THOUGHT TO HAVE BEEN TOO CLEVER.

4.

IT IS HARD TO BE CATEGORIC ABOUT WHAT NOTICE WE SHOULD GIVE THEM. MY OWN INSTINCT IS THAT TWO WEEKS IS REALLY TOO SHORT AND RUNS A SERIOUS RISK OF AN INSTINCTIVE REQUEST FOR THE DEADLINE TO BE PUT BACK. THREE WEEKS WOULD BE MUCH BETTER. PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANT THAN THIS IS THE QUESTION OF WHAT OUR REACTION SHOULD BE IF THEY ASK US TO PUT BACK THE ANNOUNCEMENT OF A DECISION PENDING

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