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MDHIAN 9151
DOUBTLESS PRESS US TO KEEP A GARRISON AS LARGE AS POSSIBLE FOR AS LONG AS POSSIBLE. BUT I WOULD QUESTION THE ASSESSMENT IN THE PAPER THAT CHINA IS MORE LIKELY TO INTERVENE IN HONG KONG BEFORE 1997 IF WE OPT FOR A FASTER PACE OF WITHDRAWAL, OR THAT THE PRESENT TENSIONS IN OUR RELATIONSHIP WITH CHINA HAVE A SIGNIFICANT BEARING ON THE MILITARY REQUIREMENT IN HONG KONG. MY, VIEW, WE DO NOT NEED TO RULE OUT OR DEFER CONSIDERATION OF THE OPTION OF REDUCTION TO A SINGLE BATTALION ON THESE GROUNDS.
PACE OF WITHDRAWAL
IN
4. THE PAPER IDENTIFIES A NUMBER OF DISADVANTAGES TO SPEEDING UP WITHDRAWAL OF THE GARRISON, INCLUDING THE CHINESE ANGLE. THESE NEED TO BE WEIGHED AGAINST THE IMPORTANCE AND URGENCY OF REDUCING DEFENCE COSTS IN REAL TERMS EACH YEAR. AS YOU KNOW, WITHOUT SUCH CUTS, I SEE VERY GREAT DIFFICULTIES IN MAINTAINING LEGCO SUPPORT FOR THE DEFENCE COSTS AGREEMENT, FOR THE FOLLOWING REASON:
A) OTHER THAN AT SEA, THE GENERAL PERCEPTION IS THAT THE GARRISON DOES NOT NOW PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN HONG KONG. WE USED THE ARGUMENT WITH LEGCO, WHEN THE POLICE AND AUXILIARY AIRFORCE WERE BEING EXPANDED TO TAKE OVER ON THE BORDER, THAT THE GARRISON WOULD BE ABLE TO SHRINK. LEGCO MEMBERS NOW EXPECT IT TO DO SO.
B) AS HONG KONG PREPARES FOR ITS NEW SOVEREIGN, SPENDING ON FORCES WHICH MANY NATURALLY EQUATE WITH DEFENCE AGAINST CHINA IS NOT GOING TO WIN A SYMPATHETIC HEARING.
C) AFTER 1997, CHINA HAS UNDERTAKEN IN THE JOINT DECLARATION TO PAY FOR ALL MILITARY FORCES WHICH IT SENDS TO HONG KONG. HONG KONG WILL MAKE NO CONTRIBUTION. CONTRAST WITH THE PRE-1997 SITUATION ARE INEVITABLY MADE.
D) UNLIKE AT WESTMINSTER, WE HAVE NO GOVERNMENT PARTY AND NO DEFENCE LOBBY. WE HAVE THREE OFFICIAL VOTES AND WE WILL LOSE THEM IN 1995. IF WE HAD GONE TO LEGCO FOR ADDITIONAL APPROPRIATIONS IN 1992-93 TO MEET THE GARRISON OVERSPEND IN THAT YEAR, THE RISK WAS TO SIMPLY THAT THE REQUEST WOULD HAVE BEEN REJECTED. RATHER IT WAS THAT THE ENTIRE DEFENCE COSTS AGREEMENT WOULD HAVE BEEN CALLED INTO QUESTION.
5. MY CONCLUSION IS THAT THE DEFENCE COSTS BUDGET FOR 1993-94 SHOULD AIM NOT ONLY TO COVER ANY JUSTIFIED OVERSPENDING IN 1992- 93 BUT WITH THAT INCLUDED SHOULD ALSO IF AT ALL POSSIBLE DEMONSTRATE A DECLINE IN REAL TERMS. THIS MAY BE TOO AMBITIOUS A
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