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DEP
FM
CO
TO IMMEDIATE HONG KONG
TELNO 429
OF 070919Z MAY 93
HKA
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10/5
06311
M. Maris
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INFO IMMEDIATE PEKING, UKREP JLG HONG KONG, CANBERRA
PERSONAL FOR GOVERNOR FROM RICKETTS, HKD CANBERRA, PERSONAL FOR SIR J COLES (VISITING)
HONG KONG:
1.
FUTURE OF THE GARRISON
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My Banter/s
TOP COPY
Angus
en 1015
(10%)
THE DEFENCE SECRETARY WILL BE SENDING YOU SHORTLY AN INTERIM RESPONSE TO YOUR TELEGRAM TO HIM OF 29 APRÍL. I HAVE BEEN OVER THE GROUND AT MY LEVEL WITH THE MOD THIS WEEK AND WANTED TO LET YOU KNOW THAT I SENSE SOMETHING OF A SEA-CHANGE IN THEIR ATTITUDE TO THE FUTURE SIZE OF THE GARRISON.
2.
I THINK THERE ARE TWO FACTORS IN THIS:
THE DEFENCE SECRETARY AND MR HAMILTON HAVE TAKEN ON BOARD YOUR POINTS ABOUT THE UNLIKELIHOOD OF AN OPERATIONAL ROLE FOR THE GARRISON BEFORE 1997, AND THE PROBLEMS ABOUT COSTS. THEY ARE OPEN TO THE IDEA OF A RAPID RUN-DOWN IF THE COLLECTIVE DECISION IS THAT WE CAN TAKE THE RISK OF LEAVING HONG KONG WITH, IN EFFECT, A SYMBOLIC GARRISON ONLY.
THE OPERATIONAL STAFF IN THE MOD ARE CASTING BEADY EYES ON THE ASSETS IN HONG KONG, GIVEN THE PRESSURES TO FIND UNITS FOR PEACEKEEPING DUTIES ELSEWHERE. THEY ARE WORKING ON TWO POSSIBILITIES:
FIRST, TO USE ONE OF THE GURKHA BATTALIONS FOR TEMPORARY DUTY IN BELIZE FROM OCTOBER 1993 TO MARCH 1994: AND SECOND TO PULL OUT THE UK BATTALION AT AN EARLY DATE TO HELP MEET THE DEMAND FOR PEACEKEEPING FORCES. THAT WITHDRAWAL COULD BE TIMED TO COINCIDE WITH THE RETURN OF THE GURKHA BATTALION FROM BELIZE SO THAT IN PRACTICE THE GARRISON WOULD REDUCE TO TWO BATTALIONS FROM OCTOBER THIS YEAR, AND THEN TO ONE IN SEPTEMBER 1994 (WHEN AS PLANNED THE TWO GURKHA BATTALIONS AMALGAMATE).
3.
THE DEFENCE SECRETARY'S REPLY TO YOU WILL NOT SPELL OUT THIS LEVEL OF DETAIL, BUT SHOULD INDICATE THE WAY MINDS ARE MOVING IN THE MOD. I THOUGHT YOU WOULD WANT TO BE AWARE OF THE BACKGROUND (GRATEFUL IF THOSE CONCERNED AT YOUR END DID NOT REFLECT KNOWLEDGE OF IT BACK TO THE MOD.) I AM MEANWHILE UP-DATING THE FOREIGN SECRETARY. SUBJECT TO HIS VIEWS, WE AGREED AT WORKING LEVEL WITH THE MOD THAT WE SHOULD AIM TO PRODUCE A MEMORANDUM FOR OPD (K) WHICH WOULD SET OUT THE CASE FOR A MORE RAPID RUN-DOWN, AND ALSO ANALYSE THE POTENTIAL RISKS. WE WOULD, OF COURSE, CLEAR THIS PAPER WITH YOU. IF THE MOD ARE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE BELIZE OPPORTUNITY, THEY WILL NEED MINISTERIAL DECISIONS SOON, PROBABLY DURING JUNE. (IF MINISTERS JUDGED THAT THIS NEEDED COLLECTIVE DISCUSSION, IT MIGHT BE POSSIBLE TO THINK IN TERMS OF AN OPD (K) MEETING TO CONSIDER THIS ISSUE, TOGETHER WITH FUTURE STRATEGY IN THE PEKING TALKS AND POSSIBLY EVEN HMOCS. BUT THAT
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