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Political and Presentational Implications
9. The Chinese leadership are deeply concerned by the risk of a breakdown in public order in the last years of British administration. They would be concerned that any early reduction in the garrison could lessen our ability to maintain law and order. In addition, officials directly concerned with Hong Kong will be likely to perceive an early reduction in the size of the garrison, in part at least, as an attempt to demonstrate that the Chinese garrison will not need as much of the military estate in Hong Kong as they are claiming. They will not be happy with a reduction since it would make the size of there garrison (probably 10,000 troops plus support units) appear excessive. In public they are likely to query
the need of the reductions this late in the day. We have committed ourselves to keeping the Chinese informed of our planning for the withdrawal of the Garrison, but not to consult them.
10. The majority of people in Hong Kong will welcome the reduction in the costs of the garrison. Some however may question wether an accelerated run-down reflected a lessening of HMG's political commitment to Hong Kong, a few may express concern at the removal of its residual internal security role.
11. Reaction in the UK will focus on the wider picture of the ability of the UK to meet its military commitments, rather than any diminution of the UK's interests in Hong Kong in the last three years of our sovereignty.
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